NVA 3.23% 15.0¢ nova minerals limited

Let's make sense of the current shares price:3m oz indicated ,...

  1. 478 Posts.
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    Let's make sense of the current shares price:
    3m oz indicated , 88% recovery , 85% ownership. mining cost $1100/oz US, 20 year mine life , discount rate 10%pa, cappex $580m AUD
    I know the mining cost and discount rate are higher than that used in the scoping study, but given inflation/ interest rates, I believe the above are realistic comfortable figures.
    ASR investment $720k , LITM $22m
    Using a gold price of US $1700/oz , it would give us a share price of $1.52 a share. NOW, if you say we're a 50/50 chance of obtaining all mining approvals and securing funding for cappex , then you would be paying approx 76c a share (last week?)

    With gold back to $1750/oz , and all other parameters same, we should be at about 95c (this week)
    @$1800/oz , $1.14

    This assessment essential contributes no value to inferred ounces. This is my opinion of the current share price/ market cap.

    Now, let's try to preempt Scoping Study 2.0 -given similar amount of drilling at Korbel, it's fair to assume approx 6moz indicated.
    And RPM? the current inferred resource has a strike length 400m east/west, 200m north/south and depth of 400m
    They are now testing the strike length a further 800m to the west. If we have more of the same, this could possibly triple the current RPM north resource. Let's say they double it to 3moz and have 1.5m oz indicated. We'll possibly have another moz at RPM south and RPM proper.
    So I'm thinking after this round of drilling - 8m oz Korbel , of which 6moz indicated, 5m oz RPM main with1.5m oz indicated = total of 13moz with 7.5moz indicated.

    I think this is a fair assumption based on what we already have and are seeing.

    Now how will this affect the numbers? Lets add another $70m aud to the cappex (slurry pipe line, more ore sorters, more trucks) and call it a 250,000oz pa operation. Using 7.5m oz, we're looking at a 30 year mine life. All other parameters same as above, gold $1750us/oz
    Full value $5.70 per share, 50/50 odds - market price $2.85 per share. With gold back to $1900/oz, looking at a share price of $3.90

    It's not an exact science as there are so many variables and we're still years off mining, this is just my attempt to make sense of the current share price and determine where I think the market will be once assays come back and new JORC confirmed.

    Fingers crossed. Good luck and sit tight. Hopefully we'll be rewarded after a year and a half of punishment.








 
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