like a lot of people said this is a much better quarterly than previous.
- good to see acknowledgement 2200tpa phase 1 has been completed at KMP. phase 2 expansion timeline has been deleted and now dependent on demand - i think this is a good thing given cost of feedstock from non-dubbo sources seems to be eating all the cash.
- acknowledgement of advanced commercial discussions with US counterpart for sale of ndfeb. however still no fleshing out of whether NS World will be a longer term customer for KMP, hopefully they are one of the potential offtakers asm is negotiating with. it just seems weird to me they would buy 10t and leave it at that.
- would be good to see a financial summary of what KMP is forecast to do at 2200tpa now that the ramp up to 5200tpa has no fixed timeline.
- still don't know why EPCD hasn't given the go ahead, why can't the company acknowledge it is waiting for mod-1 approval (or something else)? assuming they are only waiting for mod-1 approval, once approved in dec-22 that means epcd completion due feb-24, way past the various deadlines in the KCF agreement. to me this means KCF agreement is largely worthless now and i think this is a good thing given KCF's performance so far.
- EPCD payments will be based on milestones so the full financial impact is not immediate and the pace of feedstock buying will slow down until customers are secured. i think there is more than 2 quarters of cashflow left in the tank, especially if KMP secures customers concurrently with EPCD notice to proceed is given. i'm guessing we wouldn't have any need for capital raising until around mid-2023 but may be earlier if they need to fund capex for phase 2 of KMP.
- would be good to know from the company how much additional money is needed for phase 2 capex.
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