Well, let's take a stab at that one. GL1 has a JORC of 50.7Mt @...

Well, let's take a stab at that one.

GL1 has a JORC of 50.7Mt @ 1.0%. In a couple of days their end of December cash balance will be known, but we know they had A$28m cash at Sept, raised $111.4m and $10.1m while spending $60m purchasing the rest of the Manna. If there were $10m of cap raise/BAU expenses in the quarter then they are at around A$80m cash. Taking this off the market cap the EV is $480m (although a couple of days ago this EV was much lower). Each Mt of JORC @ 1% is being valued by the market at circa $9.5m.

ESS has a JORC of 11.2Mt @ 1.16% (the lithium units equivalent of 13.0Mt @ 1.0%). If each million ton at 1% has a market value $9.5m then 13*9.5=$124m. Add on $10m of cash and you have $134m. You were looking for how a valuation in the $130-$150m range could occur - there you go (and its near the bottom end of the range noted).

You could play around with this figure for corporate costs (negative), other assets (minor positive), no offtake (negative), needing flotation to get ok recoveries (negative), less funding towards production (negative), near surface (positive), whether the JORC is Measured/Indicated/Inferred....

It wouldn't be too difficult to have these adjustments balance out and still come up with circa 50c as a fair lower-end value. If the expert puts up a wide range and the bottom of this range is 50c, the offer is at the bottom end of fair. If GL1 remains under around $2.50 then it's going to be fairly easy to put a lower end valuation at 50c.