CF wise i think they will be fine and not require another cap raise.
52m cash as of 31 Dec
add
Bluff Revenues (~$48m):
- 38kt confirmed sent in early Jan (~$16m)
- 40kt TBC in mid Feb (~$17m)
- 34kt TBC late Feb (~$15m)
However TBC may not be reliable. Remember in the Sep Q report they said they were expecting a shipment in late October and nothing eventuated. Lots of blame on third parties and still blaming third parties for the upcoming mid-Feb shipment. There has been a derailment on the Blackwater train line earlier this week that will cause a shutdown for 5 days. More excuses incoming?
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2414166-derailment-halts-gladstone-coal-deliveries-updateadd BME Revenues (~$37m):
- It looks like $13.6m was receipted for the 41kt that was railed to DBCT. 154kt left on the F.Sun on 31 Jan for Korea (
https://www.vesseltracking.net/ship/f-sun-9454333) -- i was wrong about the ship on another thread but this one matches, arrived at Hays Pt 27 Dec -- so that's another 113kt worth of coal in the bank. I have no idea what pricing they are getting either API5, GCNewc, or somewhere in between, but lets say the same rate as the 41kt previously ie $330/t so that's another $37m. But at a worse case scenario of API5 pricing they will get ~$180/t or $20m.
- Further shipments? Can't tell without production figures.
So with at least 85m to add to the existing 52m, total ~137m, they should be fine. Costs for the Q will be
~$70-75m for production and development costs (similar to last 2 Qs)
$10m for continuation of Burton CHPP refurb (guess)
$16m repayment of Taurus Facility in March
?m for Burton pre-strip and mining?
HOWEVER, if i was a holder i would be asking management these questions:
1) Why are there still no production statistics? Have a look at CRN, WHC, NHC, TER, YAL, SMR. They will tell you how much they dug out of the ground (ROM production), how much product there is after washing (Saleable production), how much they sold, and how much saleable inventory they have for each mine at the end of the quarter.
In particular -- Bluff. Coal mining commenced in April and coal first railed in June. Apparently steady state ROM production is 80-100kt/month. Are they there yet? Taking the bottom end of that at 80kt/month and a yield of 80% (vs 87% as per page 16 of 26 Oct 21 announcement which also said 900kt to be produced in Yr 1) should get them 64kt of saleable PCI coal a month. They've only shipped 200kt (up until end of Feb, including the two ships that they have provided guidance on) so something isn't adding up.
Lots of smoke and mirrors to hide behind if they don't provide production statistics.
2) What pricing are they getting on their thermal product at BME? API5, GCNewc, or somewhere in between? It looks like a high energy product (>6500 kcal) however it is also high ash (>16%).
3) Burton - have they started mining? Previous guidance "First ROM coal due early 2023" as per AGM presentation. What product mix are they aiming for now that coking is back above thermal.
