Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, page-17

Shaw’s have released another report on BCB today, confirming its 12-month price target of 49c. Its modelling uses the following assumptions on HCC coking coal prices (all in US$):

2023: $287
2024: $230
2025: $190
2026: $180
Out-years: between $173 and $185

EBITDA is projected to rise from $76m (AUD) this financial year to c. $280m (AUD) in FY24 and FY25. Shaw’s project that BCB will pay a 1c dividend (4.1%) in FY24 and a 4c dividend (16.3%) in FY25, both unfranked.

Production and shipments of coal from the Isaac River mine are assumed to start in the third quarter of FY24.