TIE (ASX) Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report

Originally posted by Pimpmyride: ↑

Hi Cherry

For sure the last couple of start ups in the region have given some sort of ramp up updates. Orezone and waf. I strongly suspect Ounce profile is still staging up as they progress into the pit. Been through this process more than once in my time I would be thinking somewhere around 5k for April 7.5 in May and through the 10 mark in June. Having a good look through the feasability and this installed mill capacity my opinion is its not out of the question for this plant to go well through 6 million even up to 7 million. Orezones throughput can be a guidance for this there mill is 25% of the size although a better bond work index but the work index of tietto is very favorable and the single stage mill is quite large and far more advantageous then the orezone layout. There is a lot of things that Matt W did in this plant to de risk the ore body that the educated eye can see the main point being this thing can go way over name plate at full steam this I am sure.

Weighing it up if this ore body just comes good to just 0.7, 0.8, mining can ramp up to feed this mill and a current market cap around 410 million USD I am very much ready to launch back in. To be honest I am still amazed that the share wasnt hit much harder after the first quarter but having done this many times one thing I know is month by month with artisanal depletion it slowly up trends to the better. Lets see maybe next week I am firmly back on the TIE train at 410 million I think the reward is starting to outweigh the risk.

I dont believe management has been at all honest about problems faced in Q1 none of it makes any sense however knowing this the worst will for sure be over. In my opinion it will be Q3 before we see any real come out of the other side of this but I doubt it gets to much cheaper then the current at the world macro conditions right now. All in all if it comes out the other side its a 1 billion USD share all day long and if it doesnt provided the can just squeeze free cash flow I dont think I lose alot of money either.

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I have had a relatively small holding in Orezone since I received shares from them when they came into the Essakan deposit in Burkina Faso and they are bound by TSX rules in any case. Have just looked at the April Report from WAF and it seems that they have been producing for some time and still improving volume of ounces from December Qtr to March 2023 Qtr. TIE has not yet had a full quarter production and as I have stated before they should be judged on June and September quarters this year and they might just release monthly figures then but not really necessary. When you have large holdings by Chinese investors you need to keep things close to your chest for sure.