Interesting summary 2ic. I get the feeling some started their...

Interesting summary 2ic. I get the feeling some started their washing early this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see a rush back in when we get the 99% complete announcement with a picture of a shiny plant and lots of bulldozer's moving sand.... maybe sometime between September and November, pre-production.

Stage 1 NPV8 is $842 million.

According to their sensitivity....
Site operation cost +10%...take off $100mil
Ore grade -10% take off $190mil
commodity price -10%...take off $200mill (puts prices at a four-year low and about 40% below the price in April)
I know these things can compound but I can't see the A$/US$ going up to 0.75 if the commodity price is that low, so current FX rates probably more than account for any compounding of variables.

I don't really see capex needing additional outside money, they started with contingency and did a recent CR

Site ops will probably be +10% maybe a bit more, but that is the least detrimental of the variables.

Stage 1 NPV8 could still be above $350 in a 10% scenario...this means it is still profitable so can survive.

SFX NPV8 share would still be above $175 million. Current market cap is $190 million.

So I tend to agree, you would need reason other than commodity price, commissioning anxiety to sell shares below 50c