Some good posts, some misunderstanding maybe, guiding 27kt lead in concentrate, not concentrate. Tonnes of con will depend on recoveries and Pb-grade in con. Confirming
cauld recovery is 86% (190,258 x 5.1% Pb = 9703t Pb, 8305t Pb in con = 85.6%). Big lift on 59% recovery perious qtr, so that trend says reaching +90% recov is possible this qtr. Pb grade in con rose from 64.5% to 66.5% last qtr. That trend does not indicate such strong improvement as recoveries, and so reasonable to extrapolate this qtr's Pb-grade in con to 68.5%.
This statement is unequivocal regards con produced to say 23rd July... 90% of the next ~9.5kt shipment has been produced, = ~8.5kt con.
There was exactly 2,834t of con in stock 30th June... obviousy part of the 90% of next 9.5kt shipment.
8.5kt less 2.8kt = 5.7kt con produced to 23rd June then... divide 5.7kt by 23 x 31 = 7.7kt July con production extrapoled to 31st.
7.7kt con @ 68.5% Pb = 5.25t Pb in con.
27kt Sep Qtr Pb in con 'shipments' guidance = 25kt Pb in con after deducting 1.85Kt Pb in con stocks 30th June.
25kt Pb in con = 8.5kt Pb in con 3 monthly average.
July is unlikley to be much higher than 5.25kt Pb in con produced, so short 3.25kt Pb in con on the Qtr average.
May/Jun avg 4.13kt Pb in con month. Worryingly, May produced more con than Jun, so only modest rising production trend to july
Need ~9.5kt Pb in Con per month Aug and Sep to meet 27kt shipping guidance.
At 90% recovery need to mill 10.5kt Pb in ore feed, at 100kt monthly mill rate ore grade needs to be 10.5% Pb... (not going to happen)
At 7.5% Pb in ore, 100ktpm mill rate and 90% recovery Aug and Sep would produce 6.75kt Pb in con each month.
Sep Qtr shipping could then reach stock-con (1.8kt) + July (5.25kt) + Aug (6.75kt) and Sep (6.75kt) = total 20.5kt Pb in con (not 27kt)
Back calculating July 5.25kt Pb in con at 100kt mill rate gives ore feed Pb grade =5.8% (upp from 5.1% May/Jun avg milled)
7.5% is possible Aug/Sep avg, but thats a big jump above the rising trend of <1% Pb grade lift per month so far.
More realistic mill grade Aug-Sep is 7% at 0.8% lift in grade each month. Drops Sep Qtr to 19kt Pb in con shipments IF all con is shipped.
~95% lead sold payable. Jun Qtr 6363kt Pb in con sold @ A$1.47/Lb = $20.6M, $20.3M hit the bank.
If Sep Qtr = 19kt Pb in con sold = 18kt payable, = 39.8M Lb Pb, @ A$1.44/Lb =~ $57M revenue
I expect higher cash out Sep Qtr because extra month running mine/mill and extra con trucking etc. Up from $40M to $45-50M??
Costs are the critical variable because sooner or later the mines steady state grade, mill rate, recovery etc lock in production/revenue.
Removing the accumulated 1.8kt Pb in Con stocks 30 Jun drops Sep Qtr to 16.35kt or 36M Lb Pb in con produced, worth $52M @ $1.45/Lb Pb.
Steady State guidance 85-90kt Pb in con annually, = 7kt Pb in con avg per month based on 85kt. 21kt pb per Qtr @ $1.45/lb = A$63M
7kt Pb in Con requires 7.5% Pb and 94% recovery at 100kt mill rate (1.2Mtpa). 7.5% Pb ore feed and 94% recovery each and every month is some way off july's calculated production 5.8% Pb and 85% recovery... though more stoping ore at better grade should come into the mix.
In summary, I get Abra making posiitive cashflow on reasonable yet considerable improvements from July, but still well below total Sep Qtr guidance. Positive cashflow after tax, but not enough to repay debt without further imporvements. The lead price and AUD will have a big say in how much free cash Abra can generate at steady state, wahtever that turns out.
The market will not be happy that Sep Qtr guidance is missed, but management will hopefully point to the months of Aug/Sep as sign that improvements are being made and steaddy state LOM are achievable.. then ask forgiveness as usual.
If Aug/Sep can avg 100kt milled @ 7% Pb ore feed Aug/Sep, that demonstrates 100ktpm mined/milled @ 7.5% Pb steady state guidance is possible. Even steady state 1.2Mtpa @ 7% Pb and better recoveries should be enough to repay debt (eventually)
If Aug/Sep come in similar 100kt milled @ 6% Pb ore feed for 5.25kt Pb in con as July, market will spit the dummy imo... indicates consistently hitting 7.0-7.5% may be unrealistic.
Galena is alive and kicking, but needs to hit guidance sooner than later. GLTAH
(20min delay)