Juke, just throwing some numbers around - albeit based on very...

Juke, just throwing some numbers around - albeit based on very old BFS data -

The numbers will need to be re-cast on the future P&L and B/S because of the time lapse from the BFS production.Looking back on my notes, for A Nth, based on a simple division of 25 (the BFS numbers were based on 25 years production), sale price per tonne was $35-$53 - using $52, COGS at $30, other expenses of $1.2m, giving an EBITDA of circa $45m. Interest cost will be around $2-4m (est), Dep'n - $2m, leaving about $40m. Then After tax profit of $28m.
$28m available for dividends - usually 40% of profit is distributed. This would be circa 2c per share (based on 550m shares). To me, that would be the best scenario possible

I suspect that there won't be any dividends paid for at least 3-5 years as the cash generated will need to be sunk back into the business for capex at Muchea, A central etc.. The cream will be when Muchae comes on stream and that is anyone's guess.

So IMHO, I doubt that anyone will see any dividends until Muchae is on line and firing. There simply won't be the cash available to set up multiple plants based on cost blowouts. I think the BFS used $12.5m for capex per site - that has now more than trippled.

I'd be interested to see anyone's views on this as I'm happy for the numbers to be attacked.

DYOR