There's a mood from some on this board that BLU's test wells are a failure, management is concealing the issues, and the SP is heading for capitulation.
Also that a fire sale CR is imminent, by necessity, gutting the SP value. A CR that will only allow a passive management to keep flogging a dying horse.
That may be totally unfair on management, but that's the worse case scenario, the worst interpretation of events, and our very low MC shows it has currency in the investor market place.
Some of us have been here a long time. The SP is now rock bottom. What do we do?
Do we sell out for peanuts, and solidify our losses?
We originally got into BRU because of the potentially huge and valuable gas resource. It's still there.
If anything that's been amplified over the years, and recently (despite empty rad-green posturings), both in terms of political and market context.
To us outsiders, it appears the experienced and well connected BRU management followed a strategy of seeking buy in / funding from bigger players, which has strong merits but so far has not yielded results.
We don't know how hard they worked at it behind the scenes, but on the face of it, they appeared "unhurried". Cool-headed and wise, or too complacent, we don't know, yet....
Over time, some potentially useful "ducks" have been encouraged to join the row. So then, investing CAPEX to prove up commercial gas flow offered a powerful and timely step forward. A means of solidifying MOAs and attracting new business partners.
It's this aspect that is causing doubt.
The drilling program went very smoothly. Relative to many campaigns, it appeared competent, well executed and professional.
But the reported results so far feel ambiguous. Perhaps management could support the SP by communicating in more detail? Or perhaps it's doesn't suit the enterprise at this point, until the testing is more conclusive?
Whatever we may wish for, in the real world you can't demand perfect results, delivered immediately, on the first shot.
It all takes time.
Not to mention cash.
And commercial confidence means we're in the dark about many aspects, including whatever negotiations are being pursued.
I can't imagine there are many here who aren't in the red? Bloody annoying, of course.
But, sunk costs et al, we can only look at BRU as an investment at the current SP of 2.3 cents.
Sure, it's feeling high risk, but the MC clearly reflects that now. BLU is looking heavily discounted.
Given the management can still pull a fat rabbit out of it's hat - and the phenomenal upside that would have on the SP, it's definitely not time to capitulate.
It's been a long road, but BLU's strengths are still all there.
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