NXM nexus minerals limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, page-40

  1. 2,665 Posts.
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    Both positive and negative arguments are valid imo. A year ago things were going well and Andy could do no wrong in the eyes of most holders, me included.

    Times change and so does the decision making of both holders and the company. I was expecting a much larger mre considering the cost and amount of drilling undertaken by NXM over a few years. Andy chose a very conservative resource model that I believe was a mistake. The company needed to put out the largest possible mre, then explain to the market that the 175koz pit shell design is the focus for possible early monetisation whilst expanding lower level resources into future mineable resources imo.

    I beleve Andy failed to read the room. The company had built an expectation of greater resources in the mre by constantly referring to 'the right rocks' and showing NST's resources at the bottom of every presentation, which created a belief NXM had something special themselves.

    Now we had a 'cheap' capital raising to reward shareholders. Once again the expectation was the company was about to start a drilling campaign at Bethanga and that would be the catalyst to reward shareholders as nothing on the gold front has any chance of attracting interest from the market in the short term when they are reverting back to early stage exploration in a new area rather than drill to increase the mre that already exists.

    So having raised the cash, Andy then says they are no longer drilling the lithium targets in the hope that NXM may just jag a grant sometime in the next few months. That is a rather flimsy premise to suspend exploration on what is the main project over the next few months. Hence the further deteriation of the share price and distinct lack of interest in the company.

    Why tie up capital in an almost dormant small explorer when many others are still pushing ahead. That's where the money will gravitate to and companies who are perceived as directionless will slide further until they show some progress and strong intent.

    Which brings me to ask: Why not continue with the Bethanga drilling as planned whilst waiting to see whether they are successful in obtaining a grant of around $800k?

    If the company has any confidence in the projects, surely spending the already allocated cash from the raise shows intent to move forward. Receiving a grant should be icing in the cake and nothing more than a bonus which may bring some attention to NXM, though IPT hasn't shown any great benefit from receiving a grant yet.

    Once again, Andy has misread the market imo and has further undermined the confidence in the company by raising cash then changing the plan. I'm sure some investor wouldn't have committed to the raise had they known Bethanga was to be delayed.

    Perception is reality in the end. Nexus now has lost much of the previous belief and goodwill built up over the last few years through methodical exploration.

    After the original Pinnacles deposit was to be mined in a SAR jv but fell over, holders then waited for Wallbrook to deliver, but it hasn't really and now the eastern states projects are delayed there's a lot less enthusiasm to hold and wait yet again for an expectation to be met.

    For the strong believers in NXM, well you have the opportunity to buy shares at a very low price, if the company can deliver on something before the $6m cash is eroded. We've seen how fast money can disappear when serious drilling is undertaken. That was when the benefits had to be realised so the company could undertake a large capital raising to take NXM to the next level, instead only $3.2m was raised for what would've been the same amount of dilution.

    There's a lot of work to be done to win back support here. As for NST contributing in the recent raise, well its to their benefit to have NXM cashed up to do the tedious exploration work. They may acquire any proven deposit or toll treat ore. Or maybe one day they choose to take over NXM, having a holding in a company on their doorstep is ideal for them and will tend to scare off any other potential suitors in future.

    Having taken up my rights and bought extra rights on market to ensure I got what I wanted, I now won't even entertain buying NXM at 4c. The delaying of Bethanga has changed my perception of the company for now. They raised the money to drill so should've carried on rather than delay things and pin their hope on the Xplor grant imo.

    Just my opinion.


    Last edited by red-frog: 20/10/23
 
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