I'm puzzled as to why this is a HOLD let alone a BUY.
Mid range predicted production (almost 30k/qrt or 120k annualised) with rising AISC (now A$1300+).
(RED reported annualised production also at upper range (220k p.a.) with falling AISC A$1690 or so.)
Cash approximately A$34m with a market cap of A$1,766,000,000 or A$1,736,000,000 net of cash. (RED MC A$995m)
Mt Gibson PFS some way off .... so, when will all this cash ever flow to the bottom line (dividends etc) ?
Or is CMM just another perpetual growth, glorified ponzi scheme.
The value of buying back some of CMM's hedging assumes the POG will continue to rise and AISC wont.
Unlike KOTH, CMM operations are not seen as a regional consolidation centre .... so "show me the beef".
The perception that CMM has a justified "management premium" (like GMD) and RED doesn't, once may have been true, but no longer.
Yes CMM is an undoubted success story, a "ten bagger" in 5 years, but it's fully valued,& unlikely to see dramatic increases in value IMHO.
RED currently is probably fully valued BUT has upside potential, all things being equal, from the right M&A etc IMHO.
Is CMM worth x2 RED at todays close - not IMHO.
Is GMD MC A$1574m worth A$600m more than RED ??
When one is factoring in ROI, holding costs matter - maintaining the same SP for 2,3,4 yrs is going backward in real terms.
Now, a smart trader could have sold CMM when RED SP plunged to 13c, and now would have x2 as much value.
Being a rusted on "loyal SH" is not the mark of a successful trader - the latter plays the field instead of marrying a stock.
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