Thanks for the question.
So the thing of it is this. The buyer of the Cu may not give a Cr*p. It's still supply demand though. If the supply gets stopped by anything the Cu price is impacted. I gave the example above of Gencore Shutting Mt Isa (Cu mine). I think Pannama Cobre's expected expansion is going to be stopped too https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/panama-econ-minister-backs-contract-with-first-quantum-despite-protests-2023-10-27/
The Congo (DRC) has war close to the province that KK (Kakaula Kamoa) is in and that is the granddaddy of supply expected to expand.
Then there's The major sources of world copper are in South America, notably Chile and Peru which has major unrest plus water shortages for the former. Falling grades as well and sharply falling exploration plus discoveries. I have a major development in Ecuador (Solgold) that has plenty of unrest too.
So it's always what mines can come on and what can't the consensus is they're being stopped or retraded more than expected.
I was listening to Perennial's natural resources fund manager this morning. In answer to a question about oil. He said Chevron's & Exxonn's major purchases was due to the fact that they don't want to seek licensing for projects just existing ones with approval. That rings true and the situation for oil is a similar lot tougher than copper. In terms of financing of course banks are aware of geopolitical and environmental risk. they don't want to lose their money so their three major ways of mitigating the risk are:
1 From a syndicate take a smaller slice and diversify
2 lend countries you know or give them a much higher weighting
3 have a lower loan to valuation ratio or lower gearing. now I noted RXM talk about 50 % gearing which is lower than I would have expected but I'm happy with the returns even if it's less geared.
I don't know if it properly answers the question but there's probably enough there for you to get a flavour and come to your own conclusion. Certainly enough to assist your information gathering.
All IMVHO.
PS When I answer(ed) exam questions I was never a guy who could just write a few sharp points and expect to get full marks. Didn't stop me from getting high marks and minor distinctions though. Still, as share trader would likely opine - who cares about that this is the real world and that's fair comment.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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12 | 6572436 | 0.455 |
9 | 1191153 | 0.450 |
2 | 44211 | 0.445 |
3 | 87749 | 0.440 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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