It doesn't make any sense to value a cyclical company with operating leverage in ramp-up mode at a static 8x earnings multiple. What rubbish!
2.75m ROM processed at module 1 of CHPP from Burton pits
Here's a better approach (using my own assumptions), under the current Queensland royalty regime (vote wisely!), in US$:
Today's market cap: $120m.
Stage 1 (module 1 only)
40% recovery HCC
30% recovery thermal 5500
US$90/t cash cost (it really shouldn't be more than that)
USD:AUD: 1.50
If HCC $280/t and 5500 $90/t = $130m EBITDA (1.0x current market cap)
If HCC $400/t and 5500 $90/t = $210 EBITDA (0.5x current market cap)
Stage 2 (fully ramped up)
5.5m ROM processed at Burton
40% recovery HCC
30% recovery thermal 5500
US$90/t cash cost
If HCC $280/t and 5500 $90/t = $260m EBITDA (0.5x current market cap)
If HCC $400/t and 5500 $90/t = $420m EBITDA (0.3x current market cap)
Given numbers above, the share price should be 0.15-0.20 short term and could go up to 1.00 once BCB is fully de-risked and ramped up (3-4 years out). Higher prices would help and the structural supply-demand deficit looks very promising. Lower royalties wouldn't hurt, either.
How to get there? 1) Streamline operation (less is more), 2) deleverage, and 3) carefully expand mining activities to fill the CHPP.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report
It doesn't make any sense to value a cyclical company with...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 25 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add BCB (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
0.7¢ |
Change
-0.001(12.5%) |
Mkt cap ! $20.51M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.8¢ | 0.8¢ | 0.7¢ | $415.2K | 58.38M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
16 | 36366468 | 0.7¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.8¢ | 21660324 | 18 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
15 | 36223754 | 0.007 |
43 | 21848910 | 0.006 |
19 | 15512340 | 0.005 |
7 | 6825000 | 0.004 |
7 | 9816000 | 0.003 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.008 | 21660324 | 18 |
0.009 | 7203624 | 10 |
0.010 | 1286851 | 4 |
0.011 | 2412227 | 5 |
0.012 | 1545284 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 09/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
BCB (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
AHK
ARK MINES LIMITED
Ben Emery, Executive Director
Ben Emery
Executive Director
SPONSORED BY The Market Online