It doesn't make any sense to value a cyclical company with operating leverage in ramp-up mode at a static 8x earnings multiple. What rubbish!
Here's a better approach (using my own assumptions), under the current Queensland royalty regime (vote wisely!), in US$:
Today's market cap: $120m.
Stage 1 (module 1 only)
2.75m ROM processed at module 1 of CHPP from Burton pits40% recovery HCC30% recovery thermal 5500US$90/t cash cost (it really shouldn't be more than that)USD:AUD: 1.50If HCC $280/t and 5500 $90/t = $130m EBITDA (1.0x current market cap)
If HCC $400/t and 5500 $90/t = $210 EBITDA (0.5x current market cap)
Stage 2 (fully ramped up)5.5m ROM processed at Burton40% recovery HCC30% recovery thermal 5500US$90/t cash costIf HCC $280/t and 5500 $90/t = $260m EBITDA (0.5x current market cap)
If HCC $400/t and 5500 $90/t = $420m EBITDA (0.3x current market cap)
Given numbers above, the share price should be 0.15-0.20 short term and could go up to 1.00 once BCB is fully de-risked and ramped up (3-4 years out). Higher prices would help and the structural supply-demand deficit looks very promising. Lower royalties wouldn't hurt, either.
How to get there? 1) Streamline operation (less is more), 2) deleverage, and 3) carefully expand mining activities to fill the CHPP.
