Nobody predicted the production costs being high because it’s
expected they would be high when they first start operating (relative to their revenue). When the Sept 22 quarter first came out someone asked why they weren’t profitable already, and I noted they wouldn’t expect to be so early on (
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/64199554/single).
If you read through that thread I did a longer review of the numbers which included flagging that the high production costs were “worrying” but ultimately I thought it could be explained so I’d wait it out (
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/64229949/single).
But the time the next quarter dropped I had already decided to exit after running the numbers on their debt position. My comment on the Dec 22 quarterly was that cash was going to get tight and they’d possibly need to raise again (
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/65978747/single). Check the replies to that suggestion...
Finally when the Mar 22 quarterly came out I again noted high production costs (
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/67457104/single) and so did you, if you read the thread. My comment here also called out their reliance on the GST refund and debt deferrals to make it appear as though they were cashflow positive when clearly they were not. It also noted the lack of ROM numbers coming out of Bluff (both these things would be repeated in later quarterlies).
So in summary this was now three quarters in a row where they’d not provided proper production numbers and the production costs had remained stubbornly high. By this stage it was fairly clear the likelihood of that changing was minimal at best. Shortly thereafter came the capital raises and the rest is history.
I’m sure you will find a way to try and discount all of my commentary but it’s all there in the links above. Cheers
