No probs.
I'll answer your question a little differently and flesh things out a bit more, as I see it, at least:
- Let's, for the sake of argument, tighten it up a bit and try to be a bit more charitable at the same time. Let's assume the cost-saving measures started to flow from the beginning of this month. I feel pretty generous doing this, but let's take it for a spin.
- So, $4.2M/qtr est. baseline net quarterly cash burn, less $750k/qtr ($3M p.a.) previously announced cost-saving measures = say, $3.45M/qtr = $1.15M/mth cash burn.
- So, say est. cash balance now (end-Jan) = ~$2,315,000 (i.e. $3M (end-Dec) + $465k (Jan ATO refund) - $1.15M Jan cash burn).
- And est. cash balance end-Feb = ~$1,165,000 (i.e. $2.315M (end-Jan) - $1.15M Feb cash burn).
- Now, here's the thing: there's a general rule of thumb that says if you get down to ~$1M cash balance then you call the brokers and try for a CR, regardless of the SP or broader sentiment, or raise the white flag. Think of it as the cash balance floor level at which point any kind of procrastination optionality becomes... non-optional.
- So, come end-Feb, the cash balance will be getting *awfully* close to that non-optional trigger point.
- In reality, the end of the cash runway is more likely ~4 weeks (i.e. end-Feb) to receive a transfusion or call it a day. And this is the more charitable scenario that includes the $250k/mth ($3M p.a.) cost savings.
- And they're still, at this late juncture, talking about deal-making. How many *new* deals are going to bring in any kind of material amount of cash within 30 days?? (Yes, the water deal might get executed, triggering $500k inbound, which buys another ~2.5 weeks but that's hardly needle-moving.)
- The above bullet point bears repeating and some reflection.
- If they're gonna try raising surely, in practical terms, it needs to happen within the next fortnight??
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- Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report
Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, page-48
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