Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, page-7

Am I assessing this correctly...? The amount of dilution from any CR is going to largely depend on the amount of the arbitration payout. If the award is high, then the resulting rise in the share price should allow any CR to be done at a much higher price, if it is needed at all. If the payout is close to the amount claimed, say A$40m, then given the current AAU market capitalisation of about $20m, the share price could triple to about 6c very quickly.

If the award is less than about A$5m, then there will likely be some more dilution before the new mine is up and runnng as that amount of money will be needed just to 'keep the lights on' until then. Something in between A$5m and A$45m should see the share price rise at rate that varies depending on how much (and when) the payout actually is.

For me, AAU's credibility is on the line with this award. Claiming A$45 million and recieving less than A$20m or so, implies to me that they are, at best, incredibly optimistic. Less than A$10m and it will look like they have been deluding themselves all along.