@Mencel_as_anythingAnnouncement 29 November 2023:
"Production run-rate increase of 140%(100ktpa -> 240ktpa) on track Jan 2024"
"Rate of production is expected to reach 240ktpa by January 2024, which is 3 months earlier than originally scheduled"
Announcement 22 December 2023:
"As of 1 December 2023, the company had over 100,000t of phosphate rock in its production system. This includes mined and crushed un-beneficiated ore stockpiles, beneficiated product on drying pads and in Aurizon’s logistics system.As previously announced, by January 2024, the anticipated annual run-rate of production is expected to be ~240,000t of beneficiated concentrate, and does not require additional capital expenditure to achieve. This increase in run-rate has been achieved 3 months earlier than originally scheduled.As previously announced, and subject to financing of the Stage 1.5 Expansion, the Company remains on track to produce 440,000t of beneficiated product for CY2024. This translates to a production run-rate of 625,000t p.a. by December 2024."
Announcement 15 January 2024:
"As announced on 22 Dec, and subject to financing of the Stage 1.5 Expansion, the Company remains on track to produce 440,000t of beneficiated product for CY2024. The Company is also pleased that ~290,000t of the 440,000t to be produced in CY2024 is alreadyunder production allocation, with strong visibility on additional sales opportunities for the remaining balance."
Total inventory at 31 December 2023:
mined ore 85,229
crushed ore 1,542
drying product 13,575
concentrate product 13,439
shipped 37,857
Announcement 5 February 2024:
"To address this development, Aurizon Holdings Ltd, is currently investigating available road transport alternatives for some of the Company’s phosphate concentrate. Furthermore, the Company is keeping its customers up to date on any potential delays that may arise to scheduled shipments.All activities at the Ardmore Mine, including mining and processing, and drying continue as normal with only minor interruptions experienced due to rainfall events, typical for this this time of year.Presently, all activities at the Ardmore Mine are expected to continue operating as planned."
Announcement 9 February 2024:
"As previously announced on 5 Feb, all activities at the Ardmore Mine, including mining and processing, and drying continue as normal with only minor interruptions experienced due to rainfall events, typical for this time of year. Presently, all activities at the Ardmore Mine are continuing to operate as normal."
No further announcements were made in respect of production, until we got a quarterly on 24 April 2024:
"Centrex continues to successfully ramp up production at Ardmore, with total tonnes of ore mined, waste mined, ore crushed, and ore processed totalling ~551k"....That is a definition of triple counting, because ore processed is included in ore crushed and ore crushed is included in ore mined.
"56,659 tonnes of ore were processed through the beneficiation plant producing 38,565 tonnes of beneficiated phosphate."....38kt pq is nowhere near the 240kt pa announced before the quarter commenced.
Total inventory at 31 March:
mined ore 101,012
crushed ore 8,916
product drying 28,116
concentrate product 7,736
Shipped 32,336
Suddenly, we will not be shipping 440kt in CY2024 but only 332kt max despite ramping up production to 240kt pa 3 months ahead of schedule and despite funding being late by 1 month only.
Simple maths is this: product ready to ship Dec qtr 27kt. Shipped Mar qtr 32kt. End product Mar qtr 36kt. Produced about 41kt in Mar qtr. Run-rate 164kt pa or 30% less than declared 240kt pa. No explanation from the company.
Costs per tonne will remain high until they actually ramp up production.
(20min delay)