Just given the Q3 SYA cash flow some time.
On the surface it's pretty ugly but not as terrible as it first appears. Yes, the FOB 6% spod price needs to go up a bit (say ave US$1350 or $900 plus $1800 to third parties).
NAL probably needs to do downstream processing at NAL to be successful particularly as in the interim the only customers seems to be in Asia. The 45 day shipping time (and higher costs) puts SYA at a big big disadvantage with respect to WA. That would be the state of the world if those North American EV commitments do not become real soon.
Apart from the plant inprovements there has also been cash invested into growing the business, for example there has been a 56% increase in ROM tonnage. Plenty of feed to get that plant humming (may even be more than optimal). However they have sold all of the concentrate on hand.
The quotation adjustments should turn from being negative to neutral as prices stabilise and positive as prices increase. The adjustment might even be a couple of millions in SYA's favour for the June quarter. Then there are the monies yet to come from PLL for the JV in respect of Q3. Given the small amounts collected for sales, the receivables should also have been higher at the end of the period.
And... there is about $100m cash on hand with most of the capex to get to stable state out of the way.
NAL just need to get into downstream sooner rather than later to remove the offtake shackle, get shipping down so as to be better positioned down the cost curve. The higher ore grades are doing good things for output dropping ore per ton of spod from 8.2 to 6.4.
Good luck all.
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