I did say I'd ask again on the "Opening Cash" for SYQ ... (where...

I did say I'd ask again on the "Opening Cash" for SYQ ... (where I was using $0 - in other words a low to no WC model) to see if I could get greater accuracy.

Dougal (now our CFO) responded with:

which is fine and pretty much what I assumed

So the cash flow for the 6 month period is approximately this (and you can see the effects of consolidation of accounts):




So now you have to project forward ... does the JV require further cash from the equity partners?

Well then you have to make some assumptions ... like to hit the midpoint of production guidance (140 - 160Kt) from SYA in Oct'23 that means about 44Kt of SC produced this qtr and FY24 prod ~150Kt. And since PLL is targetting 126Kt in its FY24 (ends Dec'24) then since it only shipped about 15Kt in Q1, that leaves 111Kt over the remaining 3 quarters so an avg of 37Kt. So that leaves ~7-8Kt for the JV spot slaes. Chuck in your Opex, add some Capex (still got jaw crusher and civil works ongoing) and make your estimate.

For me I'm allowing AUD$20M for JV equity contribution ... so $15M from SYA and $5M from PLL. Add in those SYA specific costs (for rest of the business ex-SYQ) ... say $12M Opex (avg of prior 2 Qtrs) and some Capex for exploration and others costs (say $14M). That would forecast year end closing cash for SYA of $70M (down $141M from the prior year).

Going forward from 1 Jul 2024 one can be hopeful (sorry @Y4ukikmycow I know you don't like "hope" as a "strategy" but we don't control price of SC) that Equity contributions from JV partners would cease as the NAL business operates at least breakeven with unit costs coming down and SC price stabilising above US$1,200.

The question to ask yourself is whether AUD$70M is sufficient to fund SYA (ex SYQ) for FY25 business plan without SYA needing to tap the equity markets? (using the Accuity facilty is tapping the equity markets ... same as CR). Those sorts of questions are undoubtedly being circulated.