Tell you what LD, I'll apologize for being abrupt in response and hand you the win. Hoping of course this will satisfy your desire to be proven right and/or pick up stock at whatever entry point you were looking for? Deal?
When is a win not a win? When you advertise $40m and get $4m that much is obvious. Thanks for your candor Mencel and acknowledgement of your change in position.
In the early days I asked the question of management if anything was reliant on the Arb award from a project development perspective and the answer was no..
Since then the landscape for specs has deteriorated and yesterdays ann proved what was long thought to be the case that everything was hanging off the Arb decision.
Clearly confidence in the market has been shot to hell, otherwise we would have seen a bounce off the overshoot, unless that comes later on? But I fear LD is possibly correct as much as that goads the value speculator in me.
Hopefully now that the spectre of ARB is past we can move on, albeit from a woefully weak SP position.
My suspicion is that the value equipment will turn out to be less profitable on sale than what is probably the current depreciated holding value recorded on the books?
Locked up in a container or warehouse anywhere for however long doesn't usually equate to pristine condition and hence I feel the number is ambitious at best and wouldn't write it in to too many equations.
Yesterday I crowed that the project was massively derisked, having quickly read the qtrly & then got schooled hard by the selloff which came with the later release of the full Arb decision.
Removing the term "massively" I will stand by the term "derisked' but only if what is promised for next qtr actually materializes and the current SP says the market doesn't believe it will & tbh that's probably a fair assessment considering all that has transpired to date.
Some of it is within whilst some of it was beyond the control of management but that is how it is with spec stocks unfortunately.
Deliver or die..
Fundamentally the company is in a better position today than it was when the TH was called and before the release of the qtrly ann yet the SP tanked hard as people bailed on Arb news which fell short of expectation and for reasons Mencel put forward regarding pending projects.
If the $4m lands this qtr as promised then yes I believe there was an element of derisking written into the ann yesterday.
But if it doesn't and/or other deadlines like the Scoping Study, PFS & Construction of the proposed oxide mine starting in July 2024 also look to push right then this is where the SP will remain I fear.
Which is a fair way off fair value I might add but that is what the erosion in confidence will do if expectation isn't met.
The metwork is continuing in relation to the oxide resource however this has meant an amendment to cost as the recoveries were obviously a concern to the offtake partner hence the need/want to change the process design to aid in boosting yield at a cost of course which now sits at $35m usd.
Not a problem if the offtake partner is fronting the costs but as you say there's nothing concrete to say they are at this point.
With the gold price where it is the SS would seem a no brainer with gold oxide present from surface to 50m and then copper/gold from 50 to 150m.
So yes, if indeed it is a no brainer then I'd expect to see any offtake entity step up to the plate soon else you'd have to ask the question?
AGM is this month, will see what comes out of that..
(20min delay)
