Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, page-6

Avgeraged 500t/day over March, with a huge lift in recovery to HMC from ore mined vs Dec Qtr (~30% lift in HMC prod'n from only 7.5% lift in tonnes mined and 2% lift in grade?... so ~20% lift in conversion of HM mined to HMC prod'd) Why... targeting only the better behaving sands and sterilising ore to waste for the poor recovery stuff?


Anyway, 15.5kt HMC in March is an improvement, though not enough to breakeven ignoring debt obligations. Updated my table for Mar Qtr numbers and you can see Coburn operating and investing cashflow went backwards ~$10M on the Qtr, plus another ~$6M corp and Tanzania for net $16M cash outflow (even with what looks like a higher $725/t HMC sales price)



Ignoring the shipment timing issue, likely to always be an issue, and focus on the monthly production = monthly sales to see where breakeven sits. If Coburn can continue to improve and get to 17.5Kt/mth at touch higher $750/t sale price they wil just about breakeven after corp costs +/-. That is a big ask given that march slowed down from ~580t/day first 11 days to avg $500t/day over the month, so last 20 days were back under 500t/day.

Assuming they can't reach 17.5kt/mth (90% of nameplaate) they still can't pay back debt and holders will get wiped unfortunately. They can with more investment though add revenue with MSP to final products and become cashflow positve. That may be enough for a new owner to buy Coburn from Receivers with enough extra capital to shift to MSP final product operation and make a buck. Maybe even expand and try to leverage off the infra like the original 50% expansion plan? I hope so for the employees sake...

It sist on a knife edge because the return from a buyout and recap still looks small relative to the risk of some bad event or market price downturn, though with a low enough debt that risk would be partly to considerably mitigated. Any debt right down means shareholders get wiped out is the rule of thumb, that's just how the ownership stack works. Total debt $270M excluding accumulated interest and still rising just looks way too high without a very bullish view on mineral prices considering the permanently higher op costs, accumulated rehab costs, ore body risks etc.

Doubt I'll get to take the cap loss this FY unfortunately.