Yep, the shift of sales to Acc Rec is a one-off but permanent because each months they will get the delayed cash paid the next month's sales are delayed.
"i imagine that this scenario would play havoc with trying to work out grade like you've been attempting?" was just posting some analysis to explain myself as you posted obviously. Yes and no... it's simple maths so long as you have enough variables to calculate.
If we include the delayed cash reciepts in revenue for the Qtr (roughly the $15M equity infusion covers $15M delayed sales receipts) I have KMS going backwards only $10M for June Qtr. Obviously if Sep Qtr can replicate June Month x3 or better, then production and sales lift and KMS become operationally cashflow positive ex-interest payments. Note Royalties sit in Acc Payable like sales sit in Acc Rec, but I included to show a clearer picture of a monthly accrual cashflow.
There are more variables in free cashflow forecasts imo. What will the new style of more efficient mining larger slopes but with lower grade ore mean for the limit of ore mined... 2.8Mt Qtr or higher maybe? Have they squeezed all the costs out of June Qtr to try and make bank, perhaps hold back some invoices, and the steady state opex costs are actually more like $44M of Mar Qtr than the $41M of June? Inflation hasn't stopped, pay rises and escalation clauses often kick iin with a new Fin Year? Are the higher Lease payments because of more equipment hire as part of improved mining volumes? Is the rehab being suspended for short term while operations g et cash flow positive? Will recoveries keep improving or have they topped out early with everything fine tuned? How much more RHF can they generate from rectification improvements from each tonne ore moving forward?
Like I said last post, it's not so much that things have worsened but I don;t like feeling one step behind management making it look as good as it is while wondering what's really going on. It's a risk-reward play, market will determine the right price (with a little help from those with inside knowledge I'm sure). What I don;t like at all is the low Zir Con pricing or explanation it is short term and off-takers will cough up more money in time. These off-takers are very good at what they do and have been doing it for a long time, yet the pricing hasn;t improved and is guided to stay the same until next year. No guarantee recovery/quality will suddenly improve, or the market discount will evaporate...
This commentary from ILU yesterday's Qtrly may have LT implications for those selling con to an over-supplied China who have their export markets crimped (EU and USA if Trump gets in)... an over-produced and shrinking export market isn;t conducive to rising Chinese off-take prices.
GLTAH
(20min delay)