Better job @Franpower, apologies if I caused any offense. Given how number and spread of assumptions we could make, i'm happy to say I agree with the general production and sales numbers for Sep Qtr.. so long as it's 3x June month and nothing goes wrong.
I disagree on the cash balance end Sep, because I don;t belive the entire $15M jump in Acc PAy will be rolled over permanently each month. I assumed $10M of that was paid as catch-up invoices immediately in July, instead of paying by Jun 30 and making the Qtr end cash balance look even worse...
Having agreed the stock drawdown is a fair $10M bump in Sep Qtr cash, I don;t see the point in adding value of stocks to cash for a total 'liquidity figure' when it never will be. The month KMS realise the stockpile value Acc Rec without incurring a month's costs will be the month the business closes...
I have been as generous as I could be updating my table with 3x June Month mining and production figures, except for making zircon a bit higher on account June was a very low Zir-Con production month apparently. 3.2Mt mined, 216kt of con produced up a hefty 31% from Jun Qtr, and all Ilm and Zir concentrates produced are sold, shipped and money received. In reality Acc Rec should lift with higher Zircon sales, reducing cash in, but the issue of timing is such that it shouldn't matter here or there. The outcome would be operating cashflow positive, +/- cashflow breakeven across the business excluding debt interest (@ 66c USD, assuming no big capex change).
The Ilm and Zir variance for Sep QTr onwards is now Prod Tonnes produced vs BFS Design Year 2, on account of the mine ramp up being essentially running at Year 2 mining rate and recoveries. This match the comparison SFX like to use, but which ignores the extra tonnes currently being mined than the BFS. Is the higher than BFS mining rate sustainable, and if so what will it cost to produce the same amount of product from an extra ~15-30% of ore. Where does the current mine design with OS issue top out for Sep Qtr production is the current issue... where production/costs tops out after rectification is the next.
GLTAH
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