The Warrawoona mine makes a profit, even on the low grade.......

The Warrawoona mine makes a profit, even on the low grade.... but that profit is not high enough to pay off the debt. The Hamoa JV satellite deposits, judging by the boost in head grade provided by Blue Bar, doesn't do enough to compensate (even if there had not been rain delays in production from Blue Bar the head grade would still only have been 0.88g/t). From that experience Bamboo Creek ore will be much the same result.
The plan to restart Nullagine possibly might tip the balance and CAI could trade its way out of the situation. But, it would be at least a 2 or 3 year process. At the end of it the pit at Warrawoona will have been exhausted and only a small contribution of high cost underground gold would remain. Bamboo Creek would have been mined out and would require rehabilitation. The free milling Nullagine ore will have been mined out. The future for CAI would then depend solely upon the upgrade of Nullagine to treat refractory ore. The only other possible upside is Felix contains a large undiscovered deposit.

The feasibility study of Warrawoona forecast debt repayment in 18 months. If the pit actually delivered the 1.2g/t things would have been fine. Macquarie, Alkane, DR and everybody else proceeded on the basis of faulty numbers in the FS which were not picked up by 3 independent expert opinions. I give credit to DR for doing his best to rescue the situation. Speaking personally, this has been an expensive lesson for me (and a couple of friends who no longer want to talk to me). I did not understand that the grade issue at Warrawoona was as serious as it is and that multiple high grade small deposits surrounding the main site are not a substitute for one large well endowed deposit.

If CAI returns it will only be due to Macquarie not being able to recoup their loss by securing a sale of Warrawoona and allowing CAI to attempt to trade out of debt being the last remaining option. The fact Macquarie has closed out the hedge signals they want to exit.