I suspected/suggested we were being bent over a barrel and it seems that's the case now. Weird to have it all but confirmed.
Seemingly a lot of enticement and enthusiasm for the KEZAD plant initially, tax free, streamlined development approvals etc, buoyant lithium market. The UAE, having locked us in, would then know that after several years getting to this point with the entire company focused on planning/building this vertical supply chain. LPD switching directions to another jurisdiction is impossible because of the time and cost. We're out of cash, investors are tapped, and there's also no other revenue stream to cushion us - it is do or die.
Strategically perfect if I'm wanting to squeeze max value (from LPD shareholders) out of the deal. Pair that with a bottomed out lithium market and EV wobbles worldwide (albeit which complicates the investment decision for UAE) certainly doesn't improve our bargaining power.
I think I was a bit blinkered that we didn't have a plan B. Perhaps some effort in positioning for other licencing deals would have given us an alternative way to stay capitalised during negotiations. Hindsight's a beautiful thing. Bet the Northern Ontario/Sudbury local government is enjoying the schadenfreude. Traded off higher cost for higher sovereign risk perhaps, a gamble which isn't paying off.
This is all speculation/presumption on my part as to what is truly going on at the negotiation table. If it is what I think, I pin my faint hopes on the USA placing some political pressure on the UAE. Securing supply for the three major minerals we produce is a strategic priority for the US government, as the quarterly alludes to. I don't place much stock in whatever these US/Australian free trade discussions might do, we just don't have the same diplomatic and economic weight to throw around, but that's my gut feel and maybe there is some quid pro quo we can offer UAE? (Wine? hahah. We export camels to Saudi so stranger things have happened).
Anyway hoping for hail mary glory or failing that, a clean death soon.
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