The TSP price is now trending up and it is currently right on 20% above the DFS base case assumption.
That increases the DFS valuation (for MNB's 85% share only), from US$203.16 to US$260.87 (see table below from the DFS). That's a 28% increase and equates to a DFS, after tax NPV of A$400mill.
That makes no allowance for the post DFS, US$10mill upfront capex saving plus around US$25 saving for stage 2 capex (which is being brought forward to probably year 1). That US$35mill or A$54mill effectively adds another A$46mill to Minbos's 85% share of the project valuation.
NPV is potentially currently around A$450mill at the current TSP price.
It also doesn't allow for the increase to NPV that would result from bringing cash flows forward by as much as the upgraded guidance post the Carrinho binding MOU as shown in the table below.
Current market cap is around A$59mill. That will increase with the Sovereign Wealth Fund investment perhaps to around A$90mill but that gets the project fully funded on capex and still leaves a lot of room for a big increase in market cap to get to a NPV valuation in excess of A$450mill. 4-5 times sp upside on a fully diluted basis (diluted for both the SWF investment and all outstanding options).
Potential 4-5 times upside doesn't include exports to South Africa as per the recent MOU or any allowance for the green ammonia project.
I still can't see anything wrong with a 30c sp target at production.
