Hi Hoofa, I’m not much of a chartist, IMO using moving averages etc to find an entry point may miss the boat.
The way I see it, the next announcement will be satisfying 1 of the 3 main CPs. That should see a significant rerating & corresponding SP increase. That will be an announcement we just see one morning without warning. As Next Investors said, satisfying one CP will lead to the others being done.
Of the 3 main CPs I’ll explain how I see the markets reaction - just my opinion
If we get the Carrinho offtake agreement, assuming the tonnage & price is in line with the DFS, I think the market will say the Bank loan is very secure & the SWF investment a no brainer. The market will see this as enabling the other CP’s to be done. I don’t see this CP as being a problem, they’ve already been fairly specific in pricing, tonnage would seem to be way above the DFS anyway.
If the next announcement is the Bank Loan, with finance in place, it would totally derisk the SWF’s investment in MNB. With the governments determination to diversify away from oil & gas, the past agricultural history of Angola, what better project would the SWF have to invest in?
The SWF investment may need shareholder approval, I’d assume negotiations have been based on a price at a premium to the current. If the other 2 CP’s are fulfilled before the SWF’s decision, it is very likely the SP will be above the level they anticipated entering at, which would put shareholder approval at risk, possibly require them to up the price, or leave open investment from the other fund Minbos mentioned. For that reason, I think they will reach a decision before the other 2 CPs are completed. Again if this is completed, the Bank loan would be assured.
Getting back to my first sentence, I was probably wrong saying you’ll miss the boat, however IMO the biggest short term gains will occur as these CPs are completed leading to the start of construction. Signing off those 3 CPs should at least double our SP, the rest of the gains will be over the construction & early production period until sales hit our accounts - so over about the ensuing 12 month period. Yes there is risk the CPs won’t be completed, however if they are, over the next month we’ll see the best percentage gains. Entering after that certainly derisks the investment, however don’t expect the same short term returns.
