No participant in the raise is going to look at it so simply....

No participant in the raise is going to look at it so simply. From my experience, most mining funds and generalist equity funds will firstly view this as the bottom of the cycle play..... and look at a longer term thematic around supply and demand, therefore be investing for medium term commodity pricing increases.

Your numbers only deal with mod 1 NPAT and EPS. Again, participants will be looking at the medium term activation of other modules, hopefully from free cash flows and further debt.

the most difficult raise is mod 1 and thereafter, equity markets should start price in future mods cash flow, in anticipation of smaller dilution for those cash flows, driving share price appreciation.

you are correct though, the hurdle is dilution. At these levels, it's difficult to swallow as an investor as anything more than a recapitalisation.

Certainly 24c appears to need to COVID type catalyst to drive exponentially higher graphite basket prices.....long shot for now.

Makes the partner process outcome an inportant step as any success here means less debt, less equity and a higher project valuation per share given the partner will be stumping up their own equity and debt.

Feels hopeless at the moment but not uncommon in our sector.