ASM australian strategic materials limited

Thanks for your comments Newbie. A few positive announcements...

  1. 62 Posts.
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    Thanks for your comments Newbie. A few positive announcements will certainly help get things moving, however I note there are a lot of key dependencies in the scenario you're hoping materialises.

    Points1,2 and 3 will all expedite the development of Dubbo - which will demonstrate progress on the long term strategy. Even with the existing lines of credit, costs have moved on since the last economics were put together and there's likely a significant funding black hole that will need to be overcome.

    Positive news relating to ore extraction and more efficient mine development and operations will help share price appeal to some speculative positions. Most of the larger instos would not like the risk /reward proposition until there's more model validation and assurance. The Dubbo mine (and other developments, such as point 4) would rely on non-market intervention (strategic government investment) or a decent rise in metal demand/ prices, so dependent on point 5 (see below).

    Point 5. The Chinese have refrained from broad fiscal stimulus to date. Beijing announced it would cut or cancel export tax rebates for a wide range of commodities and other products, in contrast with its past practices of increasing export rebates to help Chinese exporters. Thus far, stimulus has been geared towards the housing market and local government, rather than hi-tech manufacturing. Likely an indicator that China sees it is vulnerable to trade tariffs and stimulating that sector will be zero-sum. Will the US demand for strategic metals increase? I don't know. I can scenarios either way. Risk for EV and green energy use with Trump's oil, gas and coal bias. Positives for defence spending demand and supply chain security.

    Point 6, dependent on point 4 (which is in turn dependent on point 5).

    Point 7. Increase customers and sell more metal. This is in the hands of the company's sales and production teams. Nearest and best opportunity to increase earnings and consequently result in share price rise.


 
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