LRV larvotto resources limited

Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, page-100

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    ABSOLUTELY ... improving recoveries by 10% adds an extra:

    ● 4,000 ounces of gold at $5,000 per ounce = $20m pa
    ● 500tpa antimony @ SPOT US60kpt/ $60k net = $30m pa

    So getting the metallurgy process & 10% higher recovery might potentially add $50m per annum to net earnings to the DFS at spot prices.

    Over 7 years that is $350m and if a loan were $100m then this additional earnings repays a loan of $100m in 2 years alone.

    EVEN if the benefit is only 5% additional recoveries then it is an additional $25m per annum ($175m over 7 years) & that is sufficient to repay $75m of loan principal in 3 years alone.

    .......

    YES it is worth a 2 day or even a 10 day wait BUT I would expect the DFS to be released no later than MONDAY 12 MAY so that shareholders have 2 days to review before proxy voting closes WEDNESDAY 14 MAY ahead of the AGM on FRIDAY 16 MAY.

    ......

    ONLY 4.6m shares were traded today and just over 1.1% of LRVs shares so how many times might some of these shares get churned today.

    I think that long term shareholders remain supportive of LRV & have a firm view on its prospects and valuation.

    There are those that covet LRV and likely searching for weaknesses to put pressure on the share price before making a low ball hostile CASH on market offer.

    Those that sell into a hostile bid will forgo any upside to be negotiated from any others who table an offer to LRV that will be disclosed to the ASX/ASIC and the Directors would need to opine on whether a bid is "fair/reasonable" or "not fair/not reasonable" with benefit of an experts independent report.

    FOR AN OFFER to be successful it needs a majority % of the shares plus shareholders per the Corporations Act.

    NO FINANCIAL/LEGAL ADVICE IS GIVEN HERE SO DYOR.
    ...........

    LRV will likely achieve net earnings of between $250m & $400m (maybe greater if prices rise) for 3-4 years and potentially longer as outlook for gold antimony does not look like subsiding.

    What's LRV worth is a conundrum but once LRV starts production and is achieving net earnings of $250m to $400m per annum then apply a PE of 8 times as a guide.

    You will get to a prospective value of between $2B to $3.2B so who is going to have the patience to hold for 12-18 months to see what HILLGROVE can deliver?
    ........

    Plenty of references to PPTA, SX2 & ALK/MND but maybe worth a reality check:

    ● PPTA needs a USD 2.4B loan & might get to production mid-late 2028 / early 2029. It will only meet 35% of USAs antimony requirements.

    ● SX2 has raised $140m to deliver an inferred resource by Q1 of 2027, complete 1klm decline and a PRELIMINARY economic assessment by 2028. SO when might SX2 get to mine development & will SX2 be in production by 2032?

    ● ALK/MND merger is of two gold equals @ 180k ounces of gold in total plus 1.1kt of antimony per annum.

    ...........

    LRV remains a very strong prospect and I look forward to the DFS before the AGM & confirmation of 100% project finance shortly afterwards if not at the AGM.

    ............

    AIMHO / DYOR / GLTAH

 
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