Replying to 88mph (HC quoting bug)
> That's only for HMW. What are you suggesting the fully diluted SP would be following the DFS?
I was more talking about the value once in production. Basically, if you valued the company at $10 per share once in production (after the dilution required to raise funds for capex) if you changed the forecast lithium price from $18,594 to $23,609 (as per the LPI DFS) then the valuation would change to $14.90 per share because you just added $1.6b in value (a bit less with dilution). The numbers are staggering. It all hinges on the Lithium price which is why it is so amazing that the Lithium price has barely retraced at all over the past 3 months - and it doesn't look to be going anywhere in the short to medium term.
However, to answer your question if we used $23,609 in a DFS for HMW only (i.e. excludes any value associated with Candelas and Greenbushes) and everything else was inline with the PFS we would have a post tax NPV of around $2.7b AUD and a post tax free cash flow of about $350m pa. This would then give us a value of around $2 to $2.60 post DFS (remembering that this is a very conservative model especially for Lithium stocks - basically no Lithium stocks come close to the low or mid point valuations in this model and most are well above the "high valuation" as well - sometimes by many multiples).
If we were to use this updated Lithium price AND increase output to 25,000 tpa we would get an NPV of $3.4b post tax NPV and $434m post tax free cash flow (here I increased capex to $500m USD to account for the additional output). This gives us a valuation of around $2.50 to $3.30. Again, this excludes the numbers we already have for Candelas and zero credit for Greenbushes.
The "Post Finance" numbers show what the valuations look like as we move from financing, to construction and then onto full scale production with varying levels of dilution depending on the share price that we issue equity at.
The valuations for the Lithium Chloride approach look even more amazing.
How many people buying and selling Lithium stocks today are aware of all this stuff? Probably not many?!?
Once in a decade opportunity these things are (I would say once in a lifetime but its amazing how often once in a lifetime opportunities come up).
ALL IMO DYOR
(20min delay)