just for a reference... here's last quarter's 4C. receipts were $26k and product manufacturing at $22k
same snapshot area from current qtr and there's the nice exponential lift in sales (albeit a tiny number off an even less amazing start...)
other costs are similar, staff has gone up with a new hire or 2 and pleasingly it would seem that manufacturing is back on the increase suggesting the next quarter will see a further improvement as more devices sold equals more SaaS licenses in play... it would be nice to see next quarter with an extra $60k in sales at a minimum. The leading indicator of the manufacturing is a good thing to reference future growth from
If you consider that these figures would have been probably signed off on a week or 2 ago then it would have put JHC at 9-10 weeks of use? If they have hit their quota of 400 per quarter then there is $50k of the $93k at JHC leaving $40k or so from Mednax? Or maybe they are obligated to pay $55k per quarter to hit $220k total and if they sign up 1600 in week 1 then they get lots of value in the first part of the contract? Hard to know without seeing the commercial terms? leaving $38k from Mednax?
so the guessing game for NEXT quarter starts... Can JHC sign up ALL their 1600 licenses in the next couple of months (as per the weekly sign up rate of 70 as opposed to the estimate of 25) if so then the next quarter will be about $150k from JHC plus $40 odd from Mednax (assuming no more deployment there) so $190k or so? Maybe a $200k quarter? Then what would be in the September 4C? Maybe next quarter will look the same?
It would be fun if at 70+ sign ups a week JHC filled their contract in 22 weeks from start and then had to pay full price for all subsequent signups which they would no doubt be continuing with. That might mean $220k over the first half of the year and then possibly that amount in the following quarter, that coupled with any expansion across the world would start to justify the market cap. If it is as popular with American Mums as Aussie at JHC then there should be at least 3200+ licenses clicking away at $50AUD/month by end of year just from JHC and the 2 Mednax sites. That would work out at $160k/month, call it $2m ARR (annual recurring revenue) from 2 groups or 3 locations... so 4 groups would give us the $1m/qtr running costs. 10 sites should be profitable. Assuming that each signup contributes 1600 devices we would be at those numbers, however Sheba in Tel-Aviv is 11,000 births alone and the Beyond program is a wide net... starts the numbers game....
surely given the rate of acceptance demonstrated by the JHC people (staff and patients) HMD must be able to sell 10,000 devices globally over the next 12 months? that would $6m AUD ARR, with a 16% margin HMD would justify a $38m market cap (pe of 38 for health tech). Any increases in the numbers sold or improvement of margin would shift that number quickly, equally the discount that JHC started with may not be able to be brought back so maybe the margins and revenue would be tighter.. dunno.... I'm about halfway through my 5 year outlook with HMD and it looks like the possibility of a positive outcome is increasing.
nice to see improvements in the sales!
someone with better math skills and a lovely spreadsheet would be most welcome to comment further about all of this...
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