Ann: Quarterly Activities & Cashflow Report, page-25

it's just getting torched right now... I guess that the reality is that all speculative businesses are getting revalued down due to the change in interest rates, it really needs to be understood that the risk free rate of return is looking pretty good as inflation starts to be brought to heel. Pricing of pretty much every asset market in the world centres on the US 10 year government bond, that is the ultimate risk free rate of return, HMD currently isn't looking like getting over the revenue neutral line let alone to profitability in the near future so when the risk is priced its a pretty harsh outcome on the share price. There exists the risk that funding will not materialise so that works in hand with a rising risk free rate to reduce the share price...

The longer that JHC draws out the more it looks like a fail, I have a feeling that it won't fall over but thats a bit of an educated guess and NOT an announcement to the ASX so its a bit of conjecture. Without that announcement it is most likely seen as another missed opportunity which leads to more loss in faith in the business that means a lower share price.. even if it is converted into a further 3 year deal it might only be at JHC and not the rest of RHC so the share price is probably unlikely to rally all that much... maybe back up to 10-12c.. which is 33% up but....dunno?? If HMD is limited to just JHC and Melbourne Mums then the share price probably won't drop much from here so I guess this must be close to a floor in pricing?

The GC health deal, to my mind, is a an absolute game changer should it complete on favourable terms. I was thinking about that deal this morning in the shower for some reason... anyway, old mate from the Hospital goes over to Tel Aviv to see the HMD guys and sign up for the pilot. How many state government employees get the green light to fly to Tel Aviv or anywhere overseas to sign a business deal? I know quite a few people who work in fairly senior roles in Qld Health and I've never heard of that happening.. how did this guy get that signed off? the pilot is not even for 90 mums, its a maximum of 90 mums.... the timeline is 6 months to 9 months?? 6 months is the expected amount of use of HeraCARE per pregnancy and 9 months is an obvious timeline given its to do with being pregnant however it isn't actually either date??? its about 6 to 9 months, maybe 80-90 mums, kinda of see if its cheaper for the mums to not have to pay for parking, petrol, time off work.... WTAF?!?! just all seems a bit too laid back... even for the Gold Coast! I live on the Good Coast and it just seems way too casual a setup... just doesn't add up. So one day this chick rocks up, gives a bloke a ticket to Israel for a business do, some fella goes OS to check out a bit of technology that literally fits in your pocket so could be shown to him in Australia, this same bloke just signs some pretty flimsy deal for pretty much whatevs, comes back to the GC and yeah.. whatevs.. I guess we'll kick it off... maybe, maybe not... yeah nah....
Something seems odd about it all...either its all a bit of horseshit and a total stitchup just to get a free holiday or maybe its the real deal and we are just watching a bit of an extended "Tick the Box" type affair so that all the government box tickers are happy that all the required processes including testing and competitor reviews take place. Maybe this guy from the GC hospital is already sold on it and has chosen the LEAST amount of due process to be done so that it completes whenever that minimum hurdle has been hit? maybe 6 or 9 months.. or maybe sooner? something just doesn't add up.

With 1 incomplete deal that is beyond a reasonable timeline, another pilot that just doesn't read all that well, a board full of old guys from Israel, insufficient revenue to cover costs, a partnership with some random start up in the US that doesn't need to provide anything for disclosure in Australia, more people in the head office than commercial agreements signed.... no wonder the share price is where it is... why on earth would anyone buy into that story??

I remember kicking out my RHY (rhythm bioscience) shares for about a 25% gain a couple of years ago, I think I sold at about 25c or so... I also remember them hitting $1.20 or so pretty soon afterwards.. I don't think HMD is a dead dog just yet. If the GC deal completes and then HMD is setup into Qld Health then RHC can disappear from view. Only half the population of Qld is in Brisbane, there are so many opportunities to roll out a remote maternity care option in Qld. There could very easily be 20-30,000 HeraBEATs deployed in Qld within a year of acceptance of HeraCARE platform via the GC deal. That's more than RHC would be worth at a discounted rate due to the exisiting JHC deal, from memory RHC is about 26,000 births in Australia. The cool part of being deployed remotely in Qld is that the devices will get broken or lost on a reasonably frequent basis so there would be re-orders on a regular basis which would keep the manufacturing deal well oiled and could assist in bringing down unit costs. If it has legs with Qld Health then what's stopping WA health signing up? Its already in use in WA and Qld is a bit similar to Western Australia in having lots of pretty remote spots...

I think that when the share price gets smoked you really have to revisit why did you buy and should you still hold... I have a feeling that HMD will work out and money will flow. I also have WAYYYY too many shares to just kick them out on a whim.... it all does make me fairly keen to get to the AGM and ask a few questions...