What a predicament….. not much cash and not enough runs on the...

What a predicament….. not much cash and not enough runs on the board and an evaporation of trust from the market….. reads all pretty woefully…

Revenue from e-Lovu is paid as they go and is lumpy not recurring revenue. Each license is paid in full up front at whatever was disclosed. So apparently the next purchase order will appear in the next quarter (assuming we are still a going concern)

Revenue from JHC is outstanding… probably in more ways than one… outstanding in the sense that the invoices have been raised but payment has not been received is the apparent reason for none appearing in this 4C. Probably a bit believable given that JHC now has a new exec team so why would the new guys continue to honour a handshake agreement of the previous exec team? Maybe it will all flow through to the private clinics to implement and the Hospital will cease to have a commercial agreement? Dunno? Wtf?? Shifting to Clinics is fine but it will take time and time is not in HMD’s favour…

Broward….. no one knows the holdup??? Heard variations of this story…. Might just click into gear.. might be a bit of another near miss…. Read a bit of stuff here and there about Florida Telehealth and it seems to be a real thing…. Why aren’t we green for go??

GC Health….. no communication is part of the agreement, so lucky that they signed up to the kings of communication…. Dunno??? If we had more cash then the timelines wouldn’t be such an issue but we need cash so the timeline of implementation and commercialisation IS an issue…

Massive Health platform…. Dunno…. Apparently it is green for go but even if it kicks off next week it won’t be earning anything until Drs sign up. Kind of like the Snapchat deal… needs time to gain commercial traction and just to restate the obvious…. We are almost out of time and money…

Dutch health…. Maybe it can be filed with Spanish health deal and Brazil etc… it’s a real thing but how real is HMD’s level of involvement?? HMD had to release SOMETHING and all they had was a bit of unsubstantiated fluff…. Dunno??

Other things…. Dunno? Hard to know? All a bit of what pile of shit would you like served?? Definitely a lack of trust and credibility in the market.

What next…..
-recapitalisation is a real possibility which is a shit outcome for all involved. Basically HMD would need to offer the same amount of shares on issue and effectively re-float the whole thing. At 4c 240m shares would provide runway to the next capital call…. Dunno?? At least it would clear the directors shareholdings and maybe a different board would do better?? Couldn’t do worse…

-capital raise… not sure what is available to raise given it’s the same year? 48m shares at 3c is t much chop… there needs to be a capital raise but a standard CR probably won’t work

-privatisation…. Maybe? Bit of a muck around with having an extraordinary AGM etc and getting votes across the line etc… I would be more than happy to sit out HMD as an unlisted venture. Not a great option for people who need liquidity. The capitalisation would have held up better as an unlisted asset. The latest early stage venture I’ve jumped into has some very significant other shareholders who just don’t play with Penny dreadful micro cap listed stocks. For my personal situation a privatisation would be a preferred outcome, it wouldn’t work for everyone.

buyout…. At what price… 5.2c?? That would be a 30% premium to closing price… pretty crappy outcome but maybe that’s a good outcome given dilution and capital requirements etc??? Dunno??

-wind up of the business…. I can’t see this playing out. I think it’s more likely to be an horrific dilution before wind up. Question is how that looks like?

-silver bullet…. Broward comes through, JHC kicks back in, Dutch health non-dilutive Grant materialises… hopium is fun but doesn’t really work… silver bullet is more likely to hit AFTER horrible dilution and/or privatisation of HMD.

ultimately HMD has had 2 disastrous capital raisings (the con-note that could have delivered 20c/share raise but attributed dilution to double that and less cash. The last raise which was SOOOOO poorly conducted that it sank dilution to the toilet level). Those 2 raises have left no ability to deal from the front foot with investors and have diluted everything beyond requirement. David G failed to get deals over the line and somehow gifted Philips and Sheba to Nuvo…. Philips recently tipped $12m into Nuvo…. Their device is clumsy and far more difficult to use and their platform less effective but they have the cash and HMD doesn’t…. Better ideas always lose out to better funded ideas…
Ron signed up to the top job probably 18 months too late but you don’t realise it’s too late until you are in a position that it’s obvious that it’s too late….

Dunno??? Might still work out but at a far lower expectation of exit multiples…. I don’t think it will fall over into insolvency and liquidation. I can’t see the price holding with zero cash based news in the market. Maybe we will see 1-2c next week.