Thanks for your thoughts Fish, much appreciated.
One for your watchlist for now!
I bought into ACX after the IPO from 170-230, originally I couldn’t understand the company though it was highly recommended to me, but then when the lightbulb finally went off after lot of research went almost all-in, and the rest is history including what happened today. When I posted on the relevant HC thread back then it was a ghost town, with days or weeks between replies.
You’re right UPD is nothing like ACX, except in one crucial respect — it has in my opinion, the same potential to multiply money, even from the current market cap.
You raise three main questions:-
Is Updater useful?
Is there a moat?
Can it be successfully monetised?
I think the answers are a resounding ‘yes, yes and yes’
Usefulness - it saves movers time and money doing mundane boring tasks like updating mailing addresses, drivers licenses, utilities bills, etc. With launch of Business Products, it also helps book a moving van, renew or buy house insurance, connect internet/pay TV, etc etc
Moat - the product is distributed by real estate agents and property managers not Updater. There’s <1% pa churn in market share. The US is a competitive market but Updater is winning the competition. Already at 20% and forecasting 35%.
Monetisation potential - I’ve posted on this a lot already, so won’t repeat. Sufficient to say that the company may be greatly overvalued now on cy17 and cy18 numbers, but it is greatly undervalued based on cy19+ numbers
The history why it listed on ASX is an interesting one: seed funded by Au investors in 2011 and then sought to avoid tying itself up with US VCs via the ASX route. It should be valued much greater when the planned NASDAQ listing happens, as ASX investors don’t really like investments like this, there are not enough fleas here!
I’d say this is one where thorough research will pay off. Happy to try answer any questions as a leg up.
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