Thanks Brett, was doing some thinking on numbers overnight as well. In reality, the company has been treading water for the past 12months...no increase in revenue, but they have been getting costs under control. They've cleared up the balance sheet (for the most part), and have regulatory approvals and distribution agreements for growth over the next 12months.....so i tried to think what are they numbers going to look like from the various business segments. This is my thinking and takes some large assumptions, but i think conservatively a 12months revenue number might look something like the below:
IDTF - ive assumed the USD1.3mio number as the base case (has been pretty consistent for 12 months now, but they have doubled their sales stafff and have flagged the agreement in OHIO as potential new business (+5000 patients so roughly a 25% increase potential). Im going to assume a 15% per quarter growth rate.
Q3 2020 -1.415mio
Q4 2020 - 1.575mio
Q1 2021 - 1.730mio
Q2 2022 - 1.9mio
PRIZMA - hard to get a visual based on this quarterly, but product and manufacturing costs were 338k - from memory production costs are around $75 per unit, so they've made about 4500 PRIZMAs this quarter at my best guess. This is assuming Meditel and US based distribution agreements only - i'm ignoring the NMPA approval and MOUs based on that for the moment.
If they are selling this as one offs @ $US 250 equivalent - thats ~ US$1.1mio in one off revenue - assume they sell 5000 per quarter growing at 25%
Q3 2020 - 4500 units - USD $1.126mio
Q4 2020 - 5633 units - USD $1,408mio
Q1 2021 - 7041 units - USD $1,760mio
Q2 2021 - 8802 units - USD $2.2mio
Recurring revenue based on what we know in Italy is that the first 12months is free. Followed by EUR 9.90 per month for monitoring.
So if they've sold ~ 26,000 units * EUR9.99 equiv (USD $11) - they they've added USD$281,000 off recurring to the bottom line per month - or USD$845,000 per quarter.
PATCH - very hard to get a read on - i dont really have any indication of numbers or significant sales. but going to assume USD$100k per quarter by this time next year.
SO by Q2 next year -- i estimate they'll be doing about USD$5mio per quarter (1.9+2.2+0.845+0.1) based on what we know and some conservative assumptions. So about USD $20mio per year -- and based off a revenue multiple of 5 - $100USD market cap - AUD$155mio equivalent (AUDUSD 0.645)
A$155/625 (shares on issue post cap raise) - i get an estimate of 0.248 cents per share rough and dirty. So off a 7c cap raise --- 350% increase in price? Could be worse - more importantly for me, back in the money again.
Anyways, thats my shot at it, pick apart as you wish
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