Ann: Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B - December 2019, page-15

DYOR. Not advice.
Analysis is illustrative of a number of scenarios. No specific advice is intended.
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Scenarios:

1. First scenario is as per quarterly on both AISC ($1102) and gold sales price ($2033)
2. Second scenario lifts gold price to current spot price USD $1560 (from Yahoo finance)
3. Third scenario is as for #2 and with all debt paid off
4. Fourth scenario is as for #3 and with JV production increase by 100 koz pa

I have run the scenarios at P/E 15.0 (ASX average) and P/E 20.0. I think P/E 20.0 is reasonable in the context of a gold bull market and significant potential below the current pit shell.

For depreciation/amortisation I have just used a simple rule of thumb of 5% of the value of direct CAPEX. We should get an Annual report in first half of the year (once that is out I can look at refining the assumption).

Active exploration is underway and they will report a new mineral resource in the March Quarter. I think this will give them bandwidth in resources to expand production by up to 25% whilst possibly balancing extension of mine life.




Scenario worksheet:



Summary: