Ann: Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B Jun 2018, page-11

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hagetaka

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01/08/18

11:27

Post #: 34666308
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Originally posted by horghe ↑

Read the quarterly last night and was very impressive. I think there is still plenty of upside in this stock;

1. Addition of the Southern Tenement to the indicated resource category and upgrade of LOM, If we extend this to 30 then it de-risks even more and increases the NPV of the project. Beyond 30 is not worth much as I've discussed on another thread, the difference in NPV of a 30 year project and 1,000 year project is less than 5% at 10% WACC,
2. Drilling to extend the Northern Block Resource both along strike and at depth to increase the overall resource size and the Indicated Mineral Resource category / Probable Reserve estimate. This will bridge the 'size' gap to AVL and should help in marketing.
3. The big one, progression of off-take discussions and negotiations. AVL is ahead in this one, but it is only a matter of time until TMT comes out with a big announcement here. The resource is too good, project is too profitable and the demand is too great for someone not to snap this up in an off-take.
4. Addition of Co-Ni-Cu metallurgical test work and addition to the resource. Another one where AVL is on the front foot but it is only a matter of time before TMT catches up.
5. Geotechnical drilling targeting footwall portions of the designed pits which is expected to enable a steepening of the designed open pit walls, thereby dramatically decreasing the overall strip ratio and increasing the Project NPV.

There is still a lot of work to do above, but I think the strategy is playing our cleanly here. TMT focused on getting the PFS done and out. This gives them a foothold in the market and a reason for the share price to increase. These next 5 steps will all contribute additionally to the value of the company. They have good momentum and this will keep the news flow coming. I believe AVL is justified higher value than TMT at the moment, mainly through their better marketing and first in with the larger, high quality resource (I suspect having the word Vanadium in the name helps and makes it easier to market. AVL will likely be the 'face' of Vanadium for the rest of the year.). I do believe that TMT will continue bridging the gap. If AVL gets in first with project finance, which is likely tbh, then that gap might widen again but, as stated above, TMT is on track to follow in those same footsteps.

Please note, I do not compare AVL and TMT for the purpose of saying "TMT should be such and such value". I feel the valuations are probably justified and incorporate more factors than we sometimes want to compare. I do compare them though to show the additional potential that TMT has as they continue to evolve and grow. By the time we get to production, the two companies should be fairly similar. I don't think AVL is over valued, therefore I am confident TMT has immense growth potential.

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"the difference in NPV of a 30 year project and 1,000 year project is less than 5% at 10% WACC,"

There's no need to consider 1000 year project, just incease production. Simply build another plant and organise more trucks, drill and blast. At $380m we could build and commission another plant from cashflow.

Last edited by hagetaka: 01/08/18

TMT Price at posting: 81.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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