TMT 0.00% 26.0¢ technology metals australia limited

I like the fact that we're likely to have Co,Ni and Cu credits....

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    I like the fact that we're likely to have Co,Ni and Cu credits. Together with a more efficient pit design, mining cost should be well down from current estimate. This ameliorates the risk that Vanadium price falls below the PFS estimate (unlikely). The size of the orebody also adds gravitas to the project even if later years in a NPV are not significant for valuation. To put that differently, off-take partners, financiers, classy mining execs, acquirers, etc will feel more comfortable getting involved in the project. All of these further lower operational and existential risk and therefore investment risk. This in turn underpins the discount rate - and could in time lower the rate used by investors thereby increasing NPV.

    Importantly any risk amelioration serves to justify a smaller gap between market cap and NPV. I don't see why mkt cap shouldn't move towards 20% of NPV, or around $180m. And should NPV rise to over $1.2bn or more with the pit design optimisation and inclusion of Co,Ni, Cu credits then should be heading to $250m'ish IMHO.

    But there's more. Because the bigger the NPV, the lower the risk. Increasing scale (value) means greater probability the project is attempted, and attempted by better (more competent) execs, supported by more sophisticated shareholders, and greater probability of being taken over. So then watch the gap between mkt cap and NPV compress further, realistically to one third. One third of $1.2bn equates to b$400m. I think that's a realistic 12 month target.

    IMHO

    Zen
 
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