Ann: Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B, page-20

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spendthrift

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03/05/22

11:11

Post #: 61167501
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Originally posted by tradeprofits: ↑

Each $5 USD/kg increase in NdPr price adds $130M NPV to the project.

Operating costs are fixed.

Don't forget the H/RE as well as the Phosphate (would be interesting to see if the Phosphate prices have gone up too given the global situation - this is 3% of our revenue from memory).

NdPr now $152 USD/kg and forecast to only increase. So $65 USD/kg higher than DFS ($87 USD/kg).
> 4,400 tpa @ $65/kg = $286M extra per annum from NdPr alone. This is all profit (remember costs don't change just because NdPr increases).

The timing of this offtake negoatiation has worked out greatly in Nolan's project favour and therefore ARU's valuation. So the fixed negotiated price (given they have like enough interest to sell 300% of their product) is likely to be very favourable. I think from memory they're not locking it all in as well.

13 ($152-$87=$65.... $65/$5=13) x $130M = $1,690M added to NPV.

So we're now looking at an NPV of over $3B, and extra free +ve cashflow of ~$300M every year (on top of $354M EBITDA from DFS)
Current Market Cap of ~$550M with a critically required product. Comparable producing company LYC with a Marklet Cap of ~$9,000M.

Expand

Price index that covers phos acid etc. up 143% from when ARU last released financials in May 2020

Last edited by spendthrift: 03/05/22

ARU Price at posting: 38.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last 14.0¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $345.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
14.0¢	14.3¢	13.5¢	$597.8K	4.276M

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
39	2312280	13.5¢

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
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No.	Vol.	Price($)
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37	2121713	0.130
21	1691055	0.125
30	1144280	0.120
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Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.140	369909	8
0.145	853292	9
0.150	2818391	12
0.155	531597	8
0.160	945643	17

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