ARU (ASX) Ann: Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B

Originally posted by bigblackbear: ↑

Thanks Birchy, in total agreement. Put succinctly and yes well phrased, I stand my not so well constructed comments of 4th April (rehashed here)

"Hi@Wilberforce55I acknowledge My lack of experience in this field of financing, but@The Whale1I think is close to the mark (and if you check out my first post ever in Jan 2021 I posted the same timeline re: financing).
My gut feel on this one is that there is alot happening in the background with management (GL PS and MS) in advanced discussion with foreign ECAs, Offtake contracts and partners for a combination of Debt funding (likely in the order of $500 mil) with at the same time some strategic equity (why would they pass up an opportunity to make some money on the upside in the SP of ARU, as they are bringing this to fruition with their funding) so I can see somewhere around $100-200 mil of Commercial debt funders and Offtakers having OPTIONS to convert their debt to equity at set times in the future (at favourable Share Prices eg $0.50-0.80 OR better still for SH, at VWAP at set future dates). The final funding will be current SH equity raise with a eg 1 for 4 entitlement offer to raise $100-150mil. The current upward movement in SP is to current SH advantage, as it means we are not diluted in a massive way. Better for CR to be at $0.80-1.00 then a $150mil CR would only create a max of 200mil new shares along with 200-250mil for new OT partners/commercial debt funders, so we might have < 2.0bil SOI instead of 2.5 if CR was at say 0.40
My gut feel is that all this funding is so interlinked (and currently incomplete) that Management are unable to release any info as it will effect negotiations. When it happens the chocolate will hit the fan and it will be good news for all current SHs as the SP will take off towards the $1 mark. This type of announcement will come once FEED is complete and the FID is about to be made, so expect it in July/Aug 2022.
Any pullbacks in SP will be shallow ones til then. FOMO will also be a factor then so $1 will be a possibility this year.
ARU will become a LYC 2.0 but an even better one, with the lowest AISC of under $US30 per kg, and as long as NdPr prices remain above $US150 kg (1st April = $US201/kg) the NPV of ARU will be >$A3bil , so yes I envisage an updated DFS will be released again around July 2022.
One day (likely when my children own my shares) this company will be a $10-20 billion company (ie SP $5-$10) if all goes well with mine site construction/plant construction/commissioning/waste handling/export demand and of course if China doesn't invade us first !!!
Just let me know if I'm too longwinded. (Disclosure: still own [email protected])"
Not one word changed, and I stand be every word but its still IMO & you gotta DYOR !! Trying to buy some more at 0.33 (and yep I missed out by 0.5c the other day)
LTH & Believer
I strongly believe we (retail shareholders) will be offered an equity raise as an eg 1 for 4 entitlement offer sometime in September as part of all the announcements of Offtakers, debt funding, insto/placement CR, commercial funders equity participation (eg options/converting preference shares) so I do advise if you are serious about contributing to ARUs success (and don't wont to have your holdings diluted) then ensure you have about half your current ARU worth (at 0.39) available to take up your entitlement in Sept/Oct (as I said hopefully a 1 for 4 @ $0.80)

Expand

Since the company is listed for more than 20 years, the scenarios for FEED, FID and EPC should've been in place.
Or may be there is something else I'm missing

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	131969	19.5¢

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131969

19.5¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
20.0¢	2059581	13

Price($)

Vol.

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20.0¢

2059581

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	131969	0.195
18	806308	0.190
29	1125351	0.185
52	3172948	0.180
33	2079047	0.175

No.

Vol.

Price($)

131969

0.195

806308

0.190

1125351

0.185

3172948

0.180

2079047

0.175

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.200	1059581	12
0.205	2018744	25
0.210	2608185	27
0.215	781451	13
0.220	857241	19

Price($)

Vol.

No.

0.200

1059581

0.205

2018744

0.210

2608185

0.215

781451

0.220

857241

(20min delay)
Last 19.5¢		Change -0.005(2.50%)		Mkt cap ! $450.5M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
19.5¢	20.5¢	19.3¢	$868.6K	4.398M

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