I think you guys may be looking at this with your share price eyes. Although I’m guilty (often) of being optimistic about the idea of successful FID. I think you have to view things much more broader…
Ie think about the relationships… as an example of a scenario…
What is known (for a fact, as I spoke with Gavin about 18 months back) is that some off takers cannot disclose their relationship with ARU. This is in fear China will turn off current supply. So with that in mind, the offtaker they are awaiting will not disclose to the market until they have absolute certainty the finance is approved.
Now let’s move to the finance. The finance in part is from many organizations, some private and some government. All of which both the offtakers and ARU have no control. I can almost guarantee management have no control around how quickly the legal parties for all these entitles (lenders) can move. Further, all formal approvals under these loans must occur together as all money is required for the $1.7B build. So we have the idea that offtakers will not disclose until finance is provided and that finance is determined by many parties that want to see offtake signatures (prices negotiated etc) and importantly that they have all completed their due diligence at the same time. One small hold up on any party stalls the entire piece.
This is massive, and if across the line, will be one of the first in the western world.
It’s by no means a management thing… I think we all need to get past that point. it’s complex, and if successful, should make you all a bunch of cash.
Once in a lifetime I reckon.
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