MNB (ASX) Ann: Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B

"The market does not have emotions for underperforming dogs - that's how this end of ASX operates - do some proper research"

Sure. Here's some actual research - not follow the sheep off the cliff research.

First off, this is how effective it is to sell when this stock is either at 12 month lows or is 50-60% below a prior peak. On every occasion, you would have sold just before the stock rallied around 100% to 300%. The stock is now down around 56% from a prior peak. This is no different to every other deep and/or sharp correction except that the volumes are much lower on this correction than past corrections.

Then there is the economic based research.

MNB was offered a term sheet by an international lender, the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa Ltd (IDC) for US$14mill which is currently under DD. Thanks to Praeliator for doing some real research and posting the following. It states that the IDC have a "strong emphasis on filtering applications early" "...to ensure a high probability of deal approval"
So they have done their initial research to the point of ensuring a high probability of approving the loan.
Should we ignore that and sell because others are selling at 12 month lows? Not me. I have been accumulating based on my research rather than following the crowd. While a couple of posters think I'm desperate about the current sp, I'm actually accumulating. Does a desperate person accumulate more stock on the deep corrections?

What does the IDC like about the project? I'm guessing a lot of the things that most of the investors here like.
Here's a bit more of my own research for anyone interested.

DFS, BASE case, AFTER tax NPV US$203mill or A$302mill at current exchange rate.
Adding the US$10 mill upfront capex reduction recently announced as a result of the product switch, adds US$10 to NPV.
Adding the present value (discounted at 10%) of the approx US$25mill savings of the expansion capex planned in 6 years time adds at least US$13mill to the NPV.
Capex savings alone bring the after tax base case NPV up to US$225mill or A$336mill.
NPV is calculated by forecasting negative cashflow needed for capital and adding positive cash flow from operations, discounted for time.
The DFS allowed for upfront capex of US$54.2mill. The company had raised cash in the past and paid for a significant part of the upfront capex already. The remaining needed for capex is US$26mill. So past cr's have not gone to waste. They have advanced the project and reduced the upfront capex requirement by US$28mill. That's A$42mill. By reducing the capex and therefore cash needed upfront by A$42mill, you reduce the negative cash needed in the cash flow analysis, effectively increasing the NPV by A$42mill. NPV increases to A$378mill.

Current mc is $60mill. Current upside potential to adjusted base case NPV is 378/60 = 6.3 times the current mc.
Or, more realistically, diluting for outstanding options, mc diluted is $65.8mill giving 378/65.8 = 5.7 times upside from here or around 43c per share. This case also adds $6mill to the bank balance if outstanding options are exercised, which was not factored in.

The likely worst case scenario from here is a cr for the full remaining US$12mill. That would dilute the current $66mill (already diluted for options) to around $90 mill and that's assuming a cr below the current sp. More likely the IDC loan approval pushes the sp higher before any potential cr. It's important to remember the company is pursuing other non-dilutive options other than the IDC loan so a cr is purely a hypothetical scenario.
So, IMO the likely worst case fully diluted mc from here is around $90mill. While under this scenario the share base is diluted, this is offset by an increase in the value of the company by a further $18mill of cash. With the added $18mill cash, the value of the project increases to $396mill.
396/90 (90 being the diluted mc) = 4.4.

A four fold increase (300% rise) in sp would be in line with two previous rallies of 300% from deep corrections shown in the chart above. So nothing out of the ordinary for this stock.
Times are different according to a couple of posters but a fully funded project under construction will be the best position this company has ever been. No reason why that won't trigger another 4 fold increase when the numbers back it up and that's allowing for a discounted US$12mill cr.
No cr would mean more like 6 times upside to NPV.
None of this allows for any value from the green ammonia or the P4 and it doesn't factor in the current TSP price which is currently around 10% above the DFS base case assumption. That adds around 15% to the NPV.

The sensitivity table from the DFS shows a TSP price increase of 20% increase NPV by 28%