"IMO the OT is now three successful seasons away. I.e three years…"
You have to be wrong about your opinion on that.
That 19th of July offtake announcement states the following;
"Fertilizer supply agreement for up to 869,000 tonnes of Cabinda Phosphate Rock over the first 7 years of production (to 2030), representing 66% of stage-1 production over the corresponding period."
If you divide 869,000 by 0.66, you get 1,317 million tonnes which would give you the total production over those first seven years. Divide that by seven years and you get 188,000 tonnes per year.
That corresponds to the capacity over the first seven years as stated in the DFS on the first page.
"Plant capacity up to 187,500tpa in a one plant scenario"
For the offtake to only only take effect after three more years as you suggest, all of the 869,000t would all have to be purchased over the final four years of the seven year agreed period. 869,000 divided by four gives you 217,000 tonnes per year. That is well in excess of the stage 1 plant capacity and it would leave no product for any other customers.
Not only do the numbers not add up but even if they did and if you were correct, then I can't see how they would have recently received the Indicative Term Sheet from the IDC of South Africa without having any other offtake yet for the first three years. The term sheet was received after the offtake agreement and was almost certainly dependent on that offtake. No way as as I see it that the term sheet would be received if the offtake didn't start from year 1.
"The Company has received an Indicative Term Sheet for a US$14 million (debt) loan facility from the Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa Ltd (IDC).
• The loan facility proposes a competitive interest rate and tenor, subject to a number of conditions precedent which are customary for a transaction of this nature, including due diligence with site visits scheduled for this month.
• The IDC is a South African development finance institution established in 1940 to promote economic growth and industrial development to grow South Africa’s industrial capabilities."
If the logic above doesn't convince anyone, then they probably missed the following statement on the first page of the offtake announcement made on the 19th of July.
That clearly states that supply to Carrrinho begins next year, not in three years.
"CAPEX has to have blown out more than the savings they bragged about now ….. you get what you pay for - cheap, unreliable sackable crap labour/ management "
Not according to the ASX announcement made on the 17th of last month.
"The Company is confident it can build its Phosphate Fertilizer Project at a significant discount to the budgeted Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) announced in its Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS)."
"The Company has released several updates since the DFS was released in October 2022 which will see a reduction in capital costs and operating costs and accelerate ramp up to nameplate capacity, all of which are expected to improve the base case project NPV and include:
• Simplified flowsheet has identified capital savings of ~ US$10 million over the DFS1, with only US$26 million expenditure remaining until commencement of production.
• CAPEX for Stage 2 expansion to double capacity on revised flow sheet has been estimated at US$1.7-3.3 million (previously US$28 million).
That very large stage 2 saving from US$28mill to US$1.7-3.3mill as well as the upfront saving of $US10mill are due to the changes made from producing EPR to BFR.
