MNB (ASX) Ann: Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B

Originally posted by chuk: ↑

It is clearly a two sided story right now for some.
Some investors and traders are taking the "safe" option and waiting on funding to be out of the way before buying more shares, buying for the first time, or buying back shares sold previously
Even doing that might not be a safer option because waiting for the IDC loan to be approved would very likely see a significant jump in the sp and buying on that move might put that purchase at risk from some of those buying now lower taking profits and causing a sp correction.
However, not buying straight after that news and waiting for a correction which might not come means missing out or paying even higher prices.
I guess if you're not worried about maximising your upside, the safer option is to wait but for me, buying more at 7.6-8c made more sense. There was some likely panic selling around that level on a barrage of down ramping posts and I considered the odds of failing to secure funding to be very low. So for me the best option was to buy lower to maximise upside potential. Others will wait and pay more on the reduced funding risk. Others still might wait for a cr which may or may not eventuate. There are risks with any approach in any stock and risks of one sort or the other are always present and changing. Lithium investors found out the very painful way that a even a "sure thing" like lithium just as EV sales were gathering very strong momentum, can have big price risk and that risk can be much worse than operational risk, risk of delays to timelines, etc. as we saw last year.
We had as much as 90-95% downside in some of the more bubbly, more speculative lithium and battery metal stocks from peaks due to price risk from those buying way too high in an obvious bubble. MNB has had frustrating delays that have resulted in a much more modest 50% drop from last years peak.
Buying when funding risk appears lower just increases sp risk. If you believe funding risk is low as I do, sp risk because more important.
So those telling us not to buy now due to funding or cr risks aren't telling us about sp risk from buying higher later.
Also, I keep trying to work out what the sp might do if there is a cr. The sp held well on past cr's - except when something else pushed it lower later as happened late last year (delays compounded by small caps in general getting smashed). Those cr's were not so close to construction. If we have another after the IDC loan approval, it would be the last ahead of production and it would allow construction to go full speed ahead and see production proceed this year. So would the sp even pull back to the cr price or move up strongly instead on the anticipation of construction news and production? Talk of a cr is still speculative and predicting what the sp would do is also speculative.

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@chuk

Good Luck if you think that 8.6c was going to hold or rise after yesterdays 4C

IMO - you know very well that yesterdays 4C was a disaster and so is the Cash burn and cash position now - yet still offering hope without caution

IMO

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	604000	5.0¢

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604000

5.0¢

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5.3¢	33000	1

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5.3¢

33000

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	604000	0.050
2	163837	0.049
2	142726	0.048
1	150000	0.045
1	3031	0.044

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604000

0.050

163837

0.049

142726

0.048

150000

0.045

3031

0.044

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.053	33000	1
0.054	196817	3
0.055	255707	3
0.056	30101	2
0.057	50979	2

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0.053

33000

0.054

196817

0.055

255707

0.056

30101

0.057

50979

(20min delay)
Last 5.0¢		Change 0.001(2.04%)		Mkt cap ! $43.93M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.5¢	5.5¢	4.9¢	$25.88K	522.5K

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