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21/04/24
09:06
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Originally posted by chuk:
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1.5 quarters of cash is 4.5 months. The IDC loan for US$14million is likely to be settled within 1, maybe 2 months if stretched out. There is PLENTY of cash on hand to see them through to the IDC funding. They have made it clear that they are pursuing other non diluting funding but we don't know what will come of that yet. Assuming the worst, even if there was a cr for part or all of the last US$12mill, MNB's mc is only $65mill versus an after tax NPV for the project of A$310mill. One more moderate size cr - if it happens - plus the IDC loan will seal the funding and with that funding risk gone, the sp could just as easily go up after any cr announcement rather than down. Either way, there will not be enough dilution to crimp much of the upside from a mc of $65mill (maybe $85 mill after a possible cr) to $310 mill (US$202mill). So even with up to a possible $20mill cr (assuming the upper potential for the bears if other negotiations don't give us non diluting funding for that last US$12mill); upside to after tax, base case NPV would still be 3.65 times the current sp. 3.6 times 8.3c is 30c. I call that a bear case target. No cr means upside from here to the base case, after tax NPV is 40c. Those are the facts without the scaremongering. 30-40c realistic targets on the phosphate. That ignores the green ammonia. If this company had nothing but the green ammonia project, what would it be worth? Considering the 25 year green electricity price locked in at 1.1c/kw which is around 80% less than other well priced green electricity globally, the project has a massive advantage. Not just the electricity price being 80% lower than other globally low prices but the reliability and 24 hour availability of hydro is another big advantage. Electrolyser's have big issues with fluctuating power and power significantly below their rating as can happen with solar and wind. Hydro is very reliable, base load power. MNB's GA project is also competitive with fossil fuel derived ammonia and it has freight advantages over any imported ammonia, grey or green. Given all the above, plus the free land allocated for the plant, that GA project could easily be valued at close to the current market cap, even at this early stage and will probably be worth at least a half a billion to perhaps over a billion on completion. That project offers much more upside potential than the multiples of upside potential for the phosphate. The delays to the phosphate to date can take investor focus away from the green ammonia for now but when the phosphate is producing cash flow, the market will turn its attention to the GA and what that is likely to be worth to the company. The GA offers much more upside potential to investors after the market cap reflects the phosphate value. Those that succeed in the small cap space are forward looking and don't panic when the sp inevitably corrects along the way. At time of quarterly - not only indicating that a CR was not required - also stating plenty of cash etc Without 100% of all capital going forward they are insolvent - fact and facts dont lie Blatant ramping and so misleading to others IMO
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''1.5 quarters of cash is 4.5 months. The IDC loan for US$14million is likely to be settled within 1, maybe 2 months if stretched out. There is PLENTY of cash on hand to see them through to the IDC funding. They have made it clear that they are pursuing other non diluting funding but we don't know what will come of that yet. Assuming the worst, even if there was a cr for part or all of the last US$12mill, MNB's mc is only $65mill versus an after tax NPV for the project of A$310mill.'' Thanks @chuk Not only was it state that no Cr was required - there is plenty of cash etc Blatant ramping and misleading as quarterly clearly indicated cash was running low Without 100% of all capital for running and construction MNB is insolvent 100% fact and facts dont lie