Interesting to see that it's not just some small cap ASX shares that have dropped up to 96% over the last 2-3 years.
According to an AFR article on hydrogen (link below), a number of formerly very large cap hydrogen related stocks have fallen by similar amounts.
Hydrogen truck company Nikola shares are down more than 99%.
Hyzon and Plug are both down 96%. Plug was still worth $1.5billion even after that huge decline. That was one huge bubble that these stocks had formed.
Nel (electrolyser manufacturer) is down 86%.
Minbos never got overvalued like these stocks so didn't suffer anything like those huge declines.
To put it into perspective, a 96 percent fall turns $100,000 into just $4,000. That investment then needs to rise 25 fold to just get back to where it was. A decline of around 50%, similar to that of Minbos only needs to see the stock double to reach its previous peak. That's obviously much more easily achieved than a 25 fold rise!
However according to the same article, even after the carnage to those hydrogen related stocks, "the International Energy Agency still reckons global demand for hydrogen will more than triple by 2050 if nations keep to their “announced pledges”. The IEA believes demand for “low-emissions” hydrogen will rise 25-fold by 2030 if those announced pledges are kept intact, and 246-fold by 2050"
One poster keeps telling us I have it all wrong with the sp around 8c, down from a 17c peak last year. Does that mean I also got it wrong buying at 5c in 2021 and selling at 20c just 4 months later?
I'd say the market gets it wrong at times and I like to try and take advantage. I also believe that the market is very wrong right now with MNB and there is another 4 fold rise coming.
Minbos has an excellent opportunity to be involved in that higher growth - 25 fold growth by 2030, for "low emission" (or purely green hydrogen in our case) with probably the world's cheapest green ammonia project globally. A project not requiring large capex green electricity generation to be built and with 1.1c per kw green electricity ready to go and price locked in for 25 years. What's more is that we are still getting exposure to that project for free with a mc of $62 million not even close to reflecting the value of the phosphate project with its DFS after tax, base case NPV of A$307mill.
I might have tempered my near term sp targets for now but the much higher upside potential is still there.
https://www.copyright link/companies/energy/hydrogen-s-bubble-has-burst-so-should-twiggy-buy-rather-than-build-20240118-p5eycz
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