ARU arafura rare earths ltd

Ann: Quarterly Activities Report and Appendix 5B, page-20

  1. 6,694 Posts.
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    Enjoyed the webcast and your notes SS. Appears these current lowly SP levels will be long past on soon to be announced offtake with equity announcement.
    The Aus Gov AUD200 million CN was critical - there remains only just shy of 1000T product to secure the remaining AUD400 million in long term cornerstone equity partners. What will get ARU to the AUD600 million target cornerstone investor target.
    Surely Hyundai as per past MOU will commit to equity for the substantial amount of binding offtake they will receive.
    Then another Tier 1 cornerstone equity partner attached to the remaining 1000T.
    The above two combined - well what $$$$ amount - say 100 million each - total 200 million - leaving an AUD200 million shortfall perhaps!
    It would appear ARU will require another similar deal that Aus Gov provided re CN. Highly probable where MIP alignment comes into play their supportive role.

    I would consider the above all very close to being announced - possibly all announced by end of March - leaving 3 months for remaining buckets (HP and other insto's/funds) - and likely to run over the advised date provided for FID by end of June. Matters not if it does run over a couple of months as there will be considerable binding big commitments already made by such time. I'm surmising on what DC alluded to re third parties timelines - DD etc.

    Yep enjoyed greatly that advice re current offtake being locked in at a floor price already above Beijing's current controlled pricing. Think it was Peter that advised remaining offtake discussions display the companies taking part are clearly aware og Beijing's pricing controls and motives for such. As I posted last week - multi government's and off takers are not supporting ARU for it to fail - absolutely pointless - ARU have had to tick so many boxes over past 2+ years since removal of Chinese substantial holder - ESG - binding offtakes at key pricing - etc etc - they have done such and now the rewards of project financing are arriving at concluding stages.

    The short term SP bumps - the traders that will come and go can take of course. What's 5 years when ARU arrives at full production and 80% offtake sold into healthy binding offtake agreements and the 20% spot at a time of high demand - ex China supply deficits - Chinese export bans resulting in premium pricing - not at the floors but the caps. Take some off the table then - and see how stage 2 materializes - market shortfalls etc etc.

    Thankyou to management for the webcast and information. Still a ways to go - but what juicy quarterly we will have next up and all smiles at that webcast.




 
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